Original-Research: Cenit AG (von GBC AG): Buy
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Original-Research: Cenit AG - von GBC AG
Einstufung von GBC AG zu Cenit AG
Unternehmen: Cenit AG
ISIN: DE0005407100
Anlass der Studie: Research Comment
Empfehlung: Buy
Kursziel: 19.75 EUR
Kursziel auf Sicht von: 31.12.2023
Letzte Ratingänderung:
Analyst: Cosmin Filker, Marcel Goldmann
Q1 2023: Development in line with expectations; forecasts and price target
confirmed
As expected, CENIT AG achieved a visible jump in sales in the first quarter
of 2023 with an increase in sales of 22.7 % to EUR 43.42 million (PY: EUR 35.40
million). Inorganic effects contributed particularly to this development.
ISR Information Products, which was acquired on 31 May 2022, was not
included in the figures for the first quarter of the previous year. We
assume an inorganic effect of approximately EUR 6.0 million in connection
with the ISR acquisition. In addition, CENIT AG acquired mip Management
Information Partner GmbH (mip for short) as of 30 January 2023, which we
estimate to have contributed revenue of approximately EUR 0.7 million in the
first quarter of 2023. In total, we estimate that the M&A-related increase
in revenue amounts to approx. EUR 6.7 million, so that CENIT AG, adjusted for
this effect, is likely to have generated sales growth of approx. 3.7 % to
around EUR 36.7 million.
Parallel to the strong increase in turnover, the EBIT rose to EUR 0.01
million (previous year: EUR -0.39 million). The bottom line for CENIT AG is a
slightly negative result after tax of EUR -0.07 million (previous year: EUR
-0.60 million). In the following quarters, as in previous years, the
break-even threshold should be exceeded again. On the positive side, it
should be emphasised that CENIT AG has net liquidity of EUR 2.41 million,
even after the acquisition of ISR (purchase price: EUR 27.88 million). Bank
liabilities of EUR 22.19 million are offset by liquid funds of EUR 24.60
million. CENIT AG thus has good flexibility with regard to the
implementation of the further planned inorganic growth strategy.
With the publication of the Q1 2023 figures, which were in line with
expectations, the CENIT management has confirmed the forecasts for the
current fiscal year 2023. The updated guidance now expects consolidated
sales in a range of EUR 175.00 to 180.00 million and an EBIT of around EUR 9.0
to 9.5 million. In the 2023 annual report, sales revenues of around EUR180
million and an EBIT of more than EUR9.5 million were envisaged. According to
the CENIT management, the newly formulated guidance is not to be regarded
as a forecast adjustment, whereby the upper values of the guidance range
are still targeted.
Also on a full-year basis in 2023, the expected revenue growth of between 8
% to 11 % is likely to be due in particular to inorganic effects. The
first-time full-year inclusion of ISR sales is expected to result in an
additional revenue contribution of around EUR10 million. Furthermore, the
additional revenue contribution of the acquired mip should be around EUR 3.0
million, so that the inorganic effect adds up to a total of EUR 13.0 million.
In our opinion, organic revenue growth of 3.6% should be generated in
parallel, so that we continue to expect total revenue of EUR181.61 million
for 2023. In view of the order backlog, which at EUR 67.03 million (previous
year: EUR 54.37 million) as at 31 March 2023 was 23.3 % above the previous
year's value, this assumption is realistic. Based on the unchanged
guidance, we also confirm our EBIT forecast, according to which we expect
EBIT of EUR9.80 million for 2023.
The forecasts for the next two financial years 2024 and 2025 also remain
unchanged. We continue to be guided here by the 'CENIT 2025' agenda,
according to which a sales level of approx. EUR 300 million and an EBIT
margin of 8 % to 10 % are expected by 2025. Our forecasts do not take into
account the company acquisitions explicitly expected to achieve these
goals, which explains the sales gap between our 2025 estimates and the
'CENIT 2025' agenda.
Due to the unchanged input, there are also no changes in the result of the
DCF valuation model and we confirm our price target of EUR19.75. We continue
to assign a BUY rating.
Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/26997.pdf
Kontakt für Rückfragen
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Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG und Art. 20 MAR Beim oben analysierten Unternehmen ist folgender möglicher Interessenkonflikt gegeben: (5a,6a,7,11); Einen Katalog möglicher Interessenkonflikte finden Sie unter:
http://www.gbc-ag.de/de/Offenlegung.htm
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Date (time) of completion: 12/05/2023 (08:49 am)
Date (Time) first distribution: 12/05/2023 (10:30 am)
-------------------übermittelt durch die EQS Group AG.-------------------
Für den Inhalt der Mitteilung bzw. Research ist alleine der Herausgeber bzw.
Ersteller der Studie verantwortlich. Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung
oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
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