Original-Research: Bitcoin Group SE (von GBC AG): Buy
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Original-Research: Bitcoin Group SE - von GBC AG
Einstufung von GBC AG zu Bitcoin Group SE
Unternehmen: Bitcoin Group SE
ISIN: DE000A1TNV91
Anlass der Studie: Research report (Anno)
Empfehlung: Buy
Kursziel: 58.00 EUR
Kursziel auf Sicht von: 31.12.2024
Letzte Ratingänderung:
Analyst:
Strengthening in the crisis, safety standards and trust as success factors.
Competitive environment clears up, Opportunities for further growth.
In 2022, Bitcoin Group recorded a significant year-on-year decline in
revenues of approximately 67.1% to EUR8.34 million (PY: EUR25.39 million). This
decline was mainly due to the decreased trading volume on bitcoin.de.
Several factors contributed to this decline, including interest rate hikes
by major central banks worldwide, which made credit-financed crypto
investments more expensive and traditional investment products more
attractive. In addition, the Ukraine war, increased inflation, and the
collapse of the FTX crypto exchange in November 2022 affected investor
confidence in cryptocurrencies and crypto trading exchanges.
Due to the significant decrease in revenues, Bitcoin Group's EBITDA
decreased from EUR19.75 million (FY 2021) to EUR1.37 million (FY 2022). The
negative result led to a tax income of EUR1.27 million and a net result of
EUR-2.41 million (PY: EUR13.37 million).
Bitcoin Group's equity decreased to EUR73.35 million as of 12/31/2022
(12/31/21: EUR151.65 million), mainly due to the price development of the
devalued long-term crypto holdings. Nevertheless, the equity ratio
increased to over 77.2% (12/31/2021: 73.0%). The company has low
interest-bearing liabilities and significant net financial assets of EUR14.79
million. Crypto holdings decreased to EUR70.77 million (12/31/21: EUR181.08
million) due to exchange rate losses, while net crypto holdings after
deducting deferred tax liabilities amounted to EUR54.42 million (12/31/21:
EUR132.43 million). Due to the increase in many cryptocurrencies (June 2023)
by about 80% compared to 12/31/2021, we estimate the current crypto
holdings to be around EUR125 million. Taking into account the also increased
deferred tax liabilities, we forecast a current net crypto stock of around
EUR100 million. If net crypto holdings are added to cash and cash
equivalents, the company currently has an enterprise value of around EUR45
million, which we believe already represents a significant undervaluation
of the company.
Bitcoin Group's management expects a slight decline in revenues and a
slightly negative EBITDA for the financial year 2023. The exact forecast is
difficult due to the current situation (Ukraine war, regulatory
uncertainties). Nevertheless, the company sees itself emerging stronger
from the challenging market conditions of 2022 and is aiming for EU-wide
uniform regulation to drive expansion. The stock-to-flow model shows a
positive correlation between the scarcity of Bitcoin and its price. Based
on the model, the BTC price is expected to turn bullish in the near future,
especially due to the upcoming Bitcoin halving event in 2024. Our revenue
forecast for Bitcoin Group is EUR7.03 million in 2023 and EUR13.57 million in
2024.
Bitcoin Group has canceled the planned acquisition of Bankhaus von der
Heydt as it sees no added value for the company and its shareholders. The
acquisition had incurred monthly costs, which will affect the result of the
fiscal year 2023. According to our forecasts, we expect EBITDA of EUR-0.08
million in 2023 and EUR5.31 million in 2024. Net income, according to our
estimates, will be EUR-0.2 million in 2023 and EUR3.37 million in 2024. There
is a possibility that the company will sell part of its crypto equity
holdings to take advantage of the negative earnings trend and pay lower
taxes on the sale. Such an action would improve net income, but we have not
factored this into our guidance. We still expect a dividend of 10 cents to
be proposed to shareholders.
Based on our DCF model, we have raised our price target to EUR58.00
(previously: EUR50.00). The adjustment of the forecast is based on opposing
effects in the valuation model. On the one hand, risk-free interest rates
have increased, on the other hand, we have slightly adjusted our forecast
and since the last valuation in December 2022, cryptocurrencies have again
increased significantly. This led to a significant increase in net crypto
holdings. Due to the upside potential, we assign a Buy rating.
Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/27503.pdf
Kontakt für Rückfragen
GBC AG
Halderstraße 27
86150 Augsburg
0821 / 241133 0
research@gbc-ag.de
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Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG und Art. 20 MAR Beim oben analysierten Unternehmen ist folgender möglicher Interessenkonflikt gegeben: (5a;11); Einen Katalog möglicher Interessenkonflikte finden Sie unter:
http://www.gbc-ag.de/de/Offenlegung
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Date and time of completion of the study: 09.08.2023 (12:00)
Date and time of the first disclosure of the study: 16.08.2023 (10:00)
-------------------übermittelt durch die EQS Group AG.-------------------
Für den Inhalt der Mitteilung bzw. Research ist alleine der Herausgeber bzw.
Ersteller der Studie verantwortlich. Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung
oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
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