Original-Research: Avemio AG (von GBC AG): BUY

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Original-Research: Avemio AG - von GBC AG

Einstufung von GBC AG zu Avemio AG

Unternehmen: Avemio AG
ISIN: DE000A2LQ1P6

Anlass der Studie: Research Comment
Empfehlung: BUY
Kursziel: 32.00 EUR
Kursziel auf Sicht von: 31.12.2024
Letzte Ratingänderung:
Analyst: Cosmin Filker; Niklas Ripplinger

Sales and earnings for 2023 below expectations, forecasts and price target
reduced, BUY rating confirmed
 
According to preliminary figures for the past financial year, Avemio AG
suffered a decline in sales to around EUR 103 million (previous year: EUR 108.7
million), contrary to previously communicated expectations. The company had
previously expected sales of EUR 120 million. The expected recovery in demand
in the second half of the year failed to materialise, primarily due to the
persistently weak economy. The trading companies VDH Video Data Handels
GmbH and BPM Broadcast & Professional Media GmbH were particularly affected
by this, while the trading company Teltec AG recorded a robust sales trend.
In addition to lower demand from consumers (VDH) and for high-priced
equipment (BPM), the decline in sales was also due to a lack of innovation
in the area of professional film and television technology. In addition,
many customers had made investments during the coronavirus pandemic, which
led to certain pull-forward effects for previous years. Despite these
difficulties, sales exceeded the EUR 100 million mark for the third time in a
row, although sales were significantly below our previous expectations (old
GBC forecast: EUR 127.50 million).
 
According to the company, the decline in sales was compounded by pressure
on margins due to market prices, which led to a fall in the gross margin.
The preliminary EBITDA of around EUR 0.8 million (previous year: EUR 4.4
million) is therefore significantly below the previous guidance and our
forecasts. The company had previously forecast EBITDA of EUR 5.0 million, on
the basis of which we had forecast EBITDA of EUR 5.6 million. EBITDA of EUR 1.0
million in the first half of the year is therefore offset by negative
EBITDA of EUR -0.2 million in the second half of the year.
 
In the corporate news of 22 January 2014, Avemio's management emphasised
the company's continued solid capital base. With equity of EUR 12.5 million
(30.06.23: EUR 13.0 million) and an equity ratio of 35% (30.06.23: 37%), the
company has cash and cash equivalents of EUR 5.8 million. In addition, credit
lines totalling EUR 2.6 million can be utilised and there is a commitment
from the state of Hesse for mezzanine financing in the amount of EUR 5
million. This capitalisation is intended to further drive M&A growth as one
of the company's most important strategic pillars. A further company
acquisition could be announced in the first half of 2024.
 
We are adjusting our original forecast for the past financial year in line
with the preliminary figures. Based on EBITDA of EUR 0.8 million, we expect
negative earnings after taxes of around EUR -0.5 million. Due to the lower
starting position, we are also reducing our estimates for the two financial
years 2024 and 2025. Our estimates still do not include organic growth,
which is, however, an important part of the corporate strategy. Based on
the forecast reduction, we have set a new target price of EUR32.00. We
continue to assign a BUY rating.
 

Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/28767.pdf

Kontakt für Rückfragen
GBC AG
Halderstraße 27
86150 Augsburg
0821 / 241133 0
research@gbc-ag.de
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Disclosure of potential conflicts of interest pursuant to Section 85 WpHG and Art. 20 MAR The company analysed above has the following potential conflict of interest: (5a,11); A catalogue of potential conflicts of interest can be found at
https://www.gbc-ag.de/de/Offenlegung
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Date (time) of completion: 29/01/24 (9:33 am)
Date (time) first distribution: 29/01/24 (11:00 am)

-------------------übermittelt durch die EQS Group AG.-------------------

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