Original-Research: Marley Spoon Group SE (von NuWays AG): BUY
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Original-Research: Marley Spoon Group SE - von NuWays AG
Einstufung von NuWays AG zu Marley Spoon Group SE
Unternehmen: Marley Spoon Group SE
ISIN: LU2380748603
Anlass der Studie: Update
Empfehlung: BUY
seit: 15.02.2024
Kursziel: 8.00
Kursziel auf Sicht von: 12 Monaten
Letzte Ratingänderung:
Analyst: Mark Schüssler
Strategic transactions closed; est. & PT chg.
Marley Spoon Group ('MSG') closed the strategic transactions announced on
January 31st. Here is what you need to know:
Acquisition of BistroMD. MSG closed the acquisition of BistroMD, a leading
doctor-designed ready-toeat (RTE) meal plan company in the US (c. EUR 35m
revenues in 2023), offering MSG an opportunity to use its own data and
technology platform to generate synergies and performance improvements over
time. While BistroMD should currently be loss-making due to lack of
sufficient scale (c. 30% contribution margin, eNuW), fulfilment, G&A, and
marketing expenses are seen to decrease significantly from currently c. EUR
27.5m (eNuW) to c. EUR 20m by 2025e (eNuW) thanks to the integration into
MSG's platform. In sum, we regard BistroMD as a strategically sensible
add-on as it adds a double-digit growing RTE business that capitalizes on
the increasing health & wellness consciousness of the American consumer.
Depending on the underlying share price assumed, the acquisition price of
around EUR 15m (eNuW) comprises c. EUR 1113m in debt as well as 1.4m MSG
shares, along with an earn-out of up to 1.2m additional shares (12 months
post-closing), and 450k warrants with strike prices ranging from EUR 15 to EUR
20. Assuming a share price of EUR 2.00, MSG acquires BistroMD at an EV/Sales
FY23 multiple 0.43x, a 48% premium to MSG's own current valuation of 0.29x.
Partnership with FreshRealm. Furthermore, MSG entered into a 7-year
strategic partnership for manufacturing and fulfilment with FreshRealm by
selling its US operating assets for EUR 22m to FreshRealm, which will operate
the fulfilment centre and become MSG's exclusive operations partner in the
US. This provides Marley Spoon with a scalable and capitalefficient way of
operating in the US, delegating assetheavy fulfilment and warehouse
operations (back-end) to an experienced partner while continuing to focus
its investments on customer-facing competencies (front-end). Net cost
savings are seen to amount to c. EUR 12m in G&A and should thus favourably
impact margins going forward.
Debt terms & capital raise. Both deals are supported by an c. EUR 8m equity
raise through c. 2m treasury shares at EUR 4.00 per share. Moreover, Runway,
the company's biggest debtholder, supports these transactions and agreed to
a 12-months extension of the debt facilities' interest-only period to
January 2026 and maturity date to June 2027. Upon closure of the
transactions, MSG will repay Runway EUR 10.3m of the outstanding loan
balance. Importantly, the asset sale, capital raise, and debt facility
extension provide Marley Spoon with ample breathing room to reinvigorate
its meal-kit and adjacent operations as well as time to successfully
integrate its recent acquisitions.
Growth outlook. Including the financial impact of the transactions
described above, Marley Spoon is well-positioned to return to profitable
topline growth, reaching c. EUR 384m sales (+16.9% yoy, eNuW) and c. EUR 2m
operating EBITDA (+1.4ppts yoy, eNuW) in FY24e. This should mainly be
driven by a return to active customer growth to c. 211k (+ 12% yoy, eNuW),
and leverage in its multi-region and multi-brand meal kit platform to
1. further penetrate the still vastly underpenetrated $ 7tn global food &
grocery market, harnessing deep-seated consumer trends like convenience and
wellness;
2. grow basket size via more differentiated service offerings (AI-driven
recipe development and ranking for +100 weekly recipe options);
3. and realize revenue and cost synergies from its newly acquired BistroMD
and FreshRealm partnerships going forward.
The Group remains attractively priced trading at only 0.28x EV/Sales 2024e,
leading us to reiterate our BUY rating with a changed PT of EUR 8.00 (old: EUR
8.60) based on DCF.
Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/28897.pdf
Die Analyse oder weiterführende Informationen zu dieser können Sie hier downloaden
www.nuways-ag.com/research.
Kontakt für Rückfragen
Die Analyse oder weiterführende Informationen zu dieser können Sie hier downloaden
www.nuways-ag.com/research.
Kontakt für Rückfragen
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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Für den Inhalt der Mitteilung bzw. Research ist alleine der Herausgeber bzw.
Ersteller der Studie verantwortlich. Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung
oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
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