Original-Research: MLP SE (von NuWays AG): BUY
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Original-Research: MLP SE - from NuWays AG
Classification of NuWays AG to MLP SE
Company Name: MLP SE
ISIN: DE0006569908
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: BUY
from: 08.03.2024
Target price: EUR 11.00
Target price on sight of: 12 Monaten
Last rating change:
Analyst: Henry Wendisch
Comeback of RE and performance fees around the corner; chg.
Topic: MLP released FY'23 preliminary results and suprised positively with
Q4's better than expected real
estate business. MLP also looks set to record performance fees in Q1 for
the first time since 2021.
Q4 sales in line with estimates: Sales rose by 5% yoy to EUR 289m (eNuW: EUR
294m) with a strong impact from Old-Age Provision (EUR 90m, 31% of sales;
eNuW: EUR 102m), but also strong growth from Interest Income (EUR 20.3m, +133%
yoy; eNuW: EUR 19.6m), Non-Life Insurance (EUR 39m, +22% yoy; eNuW: EUR 42m) as
well as Wealth Management (EUR 80m, +4% yoy; eNuW: EUR 91m). Surprisingly, the
negative trend in Real Estate could be stopped, as Q4 RE sales came in much
better than expected at EUR 26.2m, up 19% yoy (eNuW: EUR 5.1m), thanks to both
Brokerage (EUR 11.1m, +62.4% yoy; eNuW: EUR 3.5m) and Development (EUR 15m; flat
yoy; eNuW: EUR 1.6m).
Q4 EBIT in line with previously released PW: The positive impact from the
interest result (EUR 12.8m; +64% yoy; eNuW: EUR 13.5m) led to an overall Q4
EBIT of EUR 25.4m, up 9% yoy, while it was also burdened by a one-off
goodwill impairment on a real estate subsidiary of EUR 4m.
FY'24e guidance conservative: The company guides for an EBIT range of EUR
75-85m (eNuW: EUR 89m; eCons: EUR 88m) for FY'24e, based on positive outlooks
in Wealth as well as Life & Health. Upside could emerge from 1) a potential
rebound in Real Estate (company guides 'very positively'), which was
already visible during Q4'23, and 2) highly profitable performance fees
which seem to be likely in Q1'24e already. Both of FERI's largest public
funds (EquityFlex & Optoflex) currently exceed the threshold to be eligible
for performance fees and the record day (March 31st, last day of Q1) is
close. Against this backdrop, management seems to guide conservatively, in
our view.
Mid-term targets confirmed: By Y/E'25e, MLP aims to achieve an EBIT in the
range of EUR 100-110m, based on its diversified business mix coupled with
continous growth and efficiency gains. This would imply an EBIT 23-'25e
CAGR of 19-25%.
Overall, MLP's stock is too cheap to ignore at current levels, trading at
historically low multiples. The SDAX uplisting on March 18th should also
support the stock's trading volumes and visibility. Hence, we reiterate BUY
and confirm MLP in the NuWay's Alpha List with unchanged PT of EUR 11.00,
based on FCFY'24e and SOTP.
You can download the research here:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/29099.pdf
For additional information visit our website
www.nuways-ag.com/research.
Contact for questions
Die Analyse oder weiterführende Informationen zu dieser können Sie hier downloaden: www.nuways-ag.com/research.
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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The result of this research does not constitute investment advice
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