Original-Research: Flughafen Wien AG (von NuWays AG): HOLD
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Original-Research: Flughafen Wien AG - from NuWays AG
13.08.2024 / 09:06 CET/CEST
Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS
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Classification of NuWays AG to Flughafen Wien AG
Company Name: Flughafen Wien AG
ISIN: AT00000VIE62
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: HOLD
from: 13.08.2024
Target price: EUR 59.00
Last rating change:
Analyst: Henry Wendisch
Q2 preview: Record top line and proportionate EBITDA growth
Topic: On Tueday, 20th Aug. 2024, FWAG will release Q2 results, which we
expect to come in strong and mark new records, showing a strong demand for
air travel in 2024 thus far.
Sales growth driven by price and pax inrease: Based on a rising demand for
air travel (Q2 group passengers: +8% yoy) coupled with the statutory
increase in airport charges (c. 40% of sales) of up to 9.7% yoy as of 1st
Jan. 2024, we consequently expect group sales to grow by 10.4% yoy to EUR 273m
(eCons: EUR 277m). In detail, we expect the segment 'Airport' to grow sales by
14% yoy driven by the effects mentioned above, followed by 'Malta' (eNuW:
+12% yoy to EUR 39m) driven by Q2 solid passenger growth in Malta of 14% yoy
and 'Retail and Properties' (eNuW: EUR 52m, + 9% yoy) which should have
capitalized on Vienna's passenger growth of 6% yoy in Q2.
EBITDA expansion to new records: Due to FWAG's business model with
relatively low operating leverage, we an expect an increase in OPEX (eNuW: +
8% yoy) largely in line with sales growth. Here, the largest cost item
should be personnel expenses (eNuW: + 12% yoy to EUR 103m) driven by a
seasonal increase of employees (eNuW: +6%) as well as wage inflation (eNuW:
+6%), but also material expenses (eNuW: +12% yoy to 12.6m) like energy,
materials and third-party services. Consequently, Q2 EBITDA should grow
proportionately to sales by 13% yoy to EUR 125m (eCons: EUR 124m), which should
mark another Q2 record. Here, the segments 'Airport' (eNuW: EUR 60m), 'Retail
and Properties' (eNuW: EUR 29m) and 'Malta' (eNuW: EUR 27m) should be the main
EBITDA drivers.
D&A higher due to CAPEX cycle: Following last year's start of the terminal 3
southern expansion, we expect a slight rise in D&A by 9% to EUR 36m.
Consequently, EBIT is seen at EUR 89m, +14% yoy.
Upbeat cash generation: Despite elevated CAPEX (eNuW: EUR 68m in Q2), FCF
should remain strong at EUR 44m for Q2 (i.e., EUR 75m in H1; 37% FCF/EBITDA),
according to our estimates. This highlights FWAG's strong ability to
generate cash even after CAPEX and dividends (EUR 111m; paid in Q2). Thus, we
expect the net liquidity to come in at EUR 353m (vs. EUR 362m per Y/E'23).
In sum, FWAG's remains an attractive stock to HOLD on, as its monopolistic
nature with continuous cash flows allows for steady and slightly growing
dividends going forward. But with only 14% upside to our PT of EUR 59.00
(based on DCF), we do not expect substantial share price reactions in the
near-term.
You can download the research here: http://www.more-ir.de/d/30439.pdf
For additional information visit our website: www.nuways-ag.com/research
Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss
bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben
analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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1966371 13.08.2024 CET/CEST
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