Original-Research: Flughafen Wien AG (von NuWays AG): Hold
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Original-Research: Flughafen Wien AG - from NuWays AG
15.10.2024 / 09:01 CET/CEST
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Classification of NuWays AG to Flughafen Wien AG
Company Name: Flughafen Wien AG
ISIN: AT00000VIE62
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: Hold
Target price: EUR 59.00
Target price on sight of: 12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst: Henry Wendisch
Airlines increase winter capacities
Topic: Last week, FWAG presented its winter flight plan, which shows an
increase of destinations and frequencies compared to last winter and which
serves a indicator of supply at Vienna Airport. In detail:
Vienna airport's most important carrier, Austrian Airlines (AUA; c. 50%
market share), has left its number of destinations served unchanged at 86,
however, has decided to increase the frequencies at important long-haul
destinations such as Bangkok, New York, Maledives and Montreal.
The second largest airline at Vienna, low-cost carrier Ryanair (c. 21%
market share), increases its fleet stationend at Vienna from 18 to 19, but
also adds one more destination (now 56) served from Vienna. In addition,
Ryanair also increases its frequency on more than 20 destinations.
In addition to increases in destinations and frequencies from existing
airlines, SkyExpress (Greek Airline) will start to serve Vienna-Athens 4x a
week, whereas AirArabia (UAE's largest lowcost carrier) has resumed the
connection Vienna-Sharja (1h drive from Dubai) for 4x a week.
Overall, with more airlines, more destinations and an increase of
frequencies, we expect a mid-single-digit increase in supply compared to the
last winter period, which lasts from 29th October 31st March.
We expect demand to follow as (1) Austrian real wages should rise 4.2% yoy
this year (1.25% in FY'25e; Source: WIFO) and (2) the desire for leisure
travel is resilient, visibile in a constant share of wallet. In fact, a
recent study from Travel Data + Analytics shows a 21% yoy increase in German
leisure travel sales for the upcoming winter season (based on Aug '24
booking data). While this cannot be directly extrapolated to Ausstria, we
nevertheless regard this as a solid demand proxy.
One a sidenote, Ryanair's and Eurowing's recent decision to decrease
capacities at German airports for summer '25 due to rising air ticket levies
certainly appear alarming in general, but should not be extrapolated to
Vienna airport, where both, the Lufthansa group as well as Ryanair, seem
very happy with the airport operator, in our view, and where air ticket
levies have not been increased since 2020.
In sum, we expect a mid-single-digit passenger growth (eNuW: 4.1% yoy)
during the upcoming the winter season. Nevertheless, we also regard FWAG to
be priced fairly and reiterate our HOLD recommendation with an unchanged PT
of EUR 59.00, based on DCF.
You can download the research here: http://www.more-ir.de/d/31049.pdf
For additional information visit our website: www.nuways-ag.com/research
Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss
bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben
analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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2008233 15.10.2024 CET/CEST
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