Original-Research: Marley Spoon Group SE (von NuWays AG): Buy
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Original-Research: Marley Spoon Group SE - from NuWays AG
05.11.2024 / 09:01 CET/CEST
Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS
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Classification of NuWays AG to Marley Spoon Group SE
Company Name: Marley Spoon Group SE
ISIN: LU2380748603
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: Buy
from: 05.11.2024
Target price: EUR 4.90
Target price on sight of: 12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst: Christian Sandherr
All eyes of profitability // strategic repositioning confirmed
Marley Spoon reported solid Q3 2024 results, with sales reaching EUR 84m, up
8% yoy (9M sales -1% yoy). This was carried by the continued execution of
the company's strategic priorities, visible in a rise of order frequency of
active subscribers (+11% yoy), improved average order volume (+13% yoy),
slowed customer churn but also the successful integration of Bistro MD.
However, the total number of active subscribers declined slightly,
influenced by ongoing seasonality and reduced reliance on deep discounting.
Yet, the company is increasingly witnessing a stabilization with a customer
base focusing more on quality and retention.
Importantly, Marley Spoon achieved a fourth consecutive quarter of positive
operating EBITDA, posting EUR 2m, a EUR 3.7m yoy improvement (9M op. EBITDA EUR
3.9m). This turnaround is largely the result of the high contribution margin
of 34.5% (+3.1pp yoy), a testament to the company's successful efforts in
shifting its discount-heavy acquisition strategy to focus on customer
lifetime value and order size but also positive implications from an
improving product mix in the US as a result of the bistroMD acquisition.
Further, the company's tight grip on G&A and marketing expenses reflect the
successful pivot toward a more sustainable growth model that emphasizes
profitability.
Upgraded FY24 contribution margin guidance. Thanks to notable contribution
margin improvements across the group's end markets (9M: +2.3-3.1pp yoy) the
company raised its FY24 expectations from previously flat yoy to a 2.8-3.1pp
yoy increase. The previous op. EBITDA guidance of a mid-single EURm figure was
confirmed. Yet, sales growth vs 2023 is now seen to come in flat to low
single-digit (in constant currency).
Overall, the investment case, which is based on the sustainable turnaround,
remains intact. From 2025e onwards, the company looks set to return to
growth thanks to a further stabilizing subscriber figure but also an
increasing LTV of new subscribers (i.e. higher retention and increasing
AOV/AOF). With this, Marley Spoon is on track to reach profitability and a
positive free cash flow during the end of 2026e.
BUY with a EUR 4.9 PT (old: EUR 5.40) based on DCF.
You can download the research here: http://www.more-ir.de/d/31181.pdf
For additional information visit our website: www.nuways-ag.com/research
Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss
bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben
analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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2022273 05.11.2024 CET/CEST
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