Original-Research: INDUS Holding AG (von Parmantier & Cie. GmbH): Buy
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Original-Research: INDUS Holding AG - from Parmantier & Cie. GmbH
18.11.2024 / 15:05 CET/CEST
Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS
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Classification of Parmantier & Cie. GmbH to INDUS Holding AG
Company Name: INDUS Holding AG
ISIN: DE0006200108
Reason for the research: Update Q3 2024
Recommendation: Buy
from: 18.11.2024
Target price: 34.30
Target price on sight of: 12 month
Last rating change: no change
Analyst: Daniel Großjohann, Thomas Schießle
2024 guidance after Q3 confirmed in key points, public share buyback offer
announced
*Closing price XETRA (15 November 2024)
INDUS Holding AG generated sales of EUR 443.1 million in Q3 (9M 24: EUR 1,282.2
million; Q3 23: EUR 459.7 million), which was still 3.6% below the previous
year's figure, but exceeded the H1 quarters of 2024. The Q3 EBITA margin
(9.9%) was also higher than the H1 figure (8.8%). The annual, scheduled
impairment test led to a total impairment of EUR 6.7 million and had a
negative impact on EBIT. 9M earnings after taxes (EUR 50 million; +15.2%) and
9M EPS (EUR 1.89; +18.1%) exceeded the previous year's figures, which were
negatively impacted by the result from discontinued operations. The already
challenging environment for SMEs has not been made any easier by the
political uncertainty (Germany, USA). The remarkable improvement in group
sales and the operating margin during the year can therefore not yet be seen
as a sustainable turnaround with a view to 2025. However, we believe that
the INDUS share is still trading below its fair value, so the new public
share buyback offer is consistent with this. Due to the high quality of the
portfolio companies, the shareholder-friendly dividend policy (buyback
programme; dividend yield > 5%) and the attractive valuation (P/E 2024e:
8.4), the INDUS share remains a Buy.
INDUS has already paid out around EUR 56 million to shareholders in H1 2024
via the regular dividend and a share buyback programme. A public buyback
offer has now been announced (from 12.11.24 to 25.11.24; max. volume: 0.7
million shares at EUR 21.65) and a subsequent buyback programme (volume: max.
0.2 million shares or max. EUR 5 million). The repurchased shares are expected
to be cancelled subsequently.
Outlook for 2024: INDUS has confirmed the key points of its guidance despite
the challenging environment. Sales are still expected to be between EUR 1.7
billion and EUR 1.8 billion and the EBIT margin between 7% and 8%. The free
cash flow target (> EUR 110 million) was also confirmed. In terms of EBIT, the
result of the annual scheduled impairment test was the main reason for
lowering the EBIT target to a target corridor of EUR 115 million to EUR 125
million (previously EUR 125 million to EUR 145 million).
DISCLAIMER
LEGAL NOTICE
This research report ('Investment Recommendation') was prepared by
Parmantier & Cie. Research, with contributions from Mr. Grossjohann, and is
distributed solely by Parmantier & Cie. Research. It is intended only for
the recipient and may not be shared with other entities, even if they are
part of the same corporate group, without prior written consent. The report
contains selected information and makes no claim to completeness. The
investment recommendation is based on publicly available information
('Information'), which is considered correct and complete. However,
Parmantier & Cie. Research does not verify or guarantee the accuracy or
completeness of this information. Any potential errors or omissions do not
create liability for Parmantier & Cie. Research, which assumes no liability
for direct, indirect, or consequential damages.
In particular, Parmantier & Cie. Research accepts no responsibility for the
accuracy of statements, forecasts, or other content in this investment
recommendation concerning the analyzed companies, their subsidiaries,
strategies, economic conditions, market and competitive positions,
regulatory frameworks, and similar factors. While care has been taken in
preparing this report, errors or omissions cannot be excluded. Parmantier &
Cie. Research, including its partners and employees, accepts no liability
for the accuracy or completeness of statements, estimates, or conclusions
derived from the provided information in this investment recommendation.
To the extent this investment recommendation is provided as part of an
existing contractual relationship (e.g., financial advisory services),
Parmantier & Cie. Research's liability is limited to cases of gross
negligence or intentional misconduct. In cases of breach of essential
obligations, liability is limited to simple negligence but is restricted to
foreseeable and typical damages in all cases. This investment recommendation
does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities.
Partners, managing directors, or employees of Parmantier & Cie. Research or
its subsidiaries may hold responsible positions, such as supervisory board
mandates, in the companies mentioned in this report. The opinions expressed
in this investment recommendation may change without notice and reflect the
personal view of the research analyst. Unless otherwise stated, no part of
the research analyst's compensation is directly or indirectly related to the
recommendations or opinions contained in this report. All rights reserved.
You can download the research here: http://www.more-ir.de/d/31349.pdf
Contact for questions:
Kontakt:
PARMANTIER & Cie. GmbH
info@parmantiercie.com
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2032341 18.11.2024 CET/CEST
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