Original-Research: Cantourage Group SE (von NuWays AG): BUY
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Original-Research: Cantourage Group SE - from NuWays AG
14.04.2025 / 09:00 CET/CEST
Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS
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Classification of NuWays AG to Cantourage Group SE
Company Name: Cantourage Group SE
ISIN: DE000A3DSV01
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: BUY
from: 14.04.2025
Target price: EUR 13.00
Target price on sight of: 12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst: Christian Sandherr
Growth beating expectations, again; PT up
Q1 sales surged to EUR 25.6m, more than quadrupling compared to the previous
year's figure of EUR 6.1m and clearly exceeding our expectations of EUR 22m.
Sequentially, sales grew by 21% qoq, marking a new record high. In March
alone, sales stood at EUR 10.7m, beating the previous best month, December
with EUR 8.5m. This increase should largely be the result of successful
de-bottlenecking efforts on Cantourage's side during the past few months.
With strongly growing demand, the company has been working on raising its
processing capacities at it German site as well as through partnerships
(e.g. with a Portuguese contract manufacturer). Securing sufficient supply
(incl. processing capacities) could allow Cantourage to reach the EUR 100m
sales level already this year.
Scale to kick in. While Cantourage only announced sales figures, we would
also expect a further improving margins as scale effects begin to kick in.
We would expect an EBITDA margin of around 10% to be in the cards (for Q1)
despite ongoing investments into growth.
No FY25 guidance issued yet. So far, management has not issued a guidance
for the current year. We would expect a first FY25 outlook with the
publication of final FY24 figures at the end of April. In light of the
better than expected start into the year, unbroken demand and further
de-bottlenecking efforts, we have increased our sales growth expectations
from 67% to 81%, implying EUR 93m sales.
Easing political risks. Last week, Germany's new government published the
coalition agreement, which states an open-ended evaluation of the cannabis
legalization law for autumn 2025. In our view, this is a clear positive and
a return to the pre-April 1st, 2024 legal framework or a reclassification of
cannabis as a narcotic now appears increasingly unlikely, not only due to
the high degree of complexity as well as a wave of lawsuits but also a
seemingly low importance to the new law-makers (postponed discussions and
only one sentence across a 146 page document).
Share price de-coupled from fundamentals. While operations have been
strongly improving quarter over quarter for roughly a year, the valuation
has decreased to some EUR 56m. Despite expected FY25e sale growth of 81% yoy,
Cantourage should be able to reach a 10% EBITDA margin, implying an
attractive EV/EBITDA multiple of 5.2x.
We confirm our BUY rating with a new EUR 13 PT (EUR 12.50) based on DCF.
You can download the research here: http://www.more-ir.de/d/32238.pdf
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Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss
bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben
analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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2116712 14.04.2025 CET/CEST
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