Original-Research: dynaCERT Inc. (von GBC AG): Buy
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Original-Research: dynaCERT Inc. - from GBC AG
17.04.2025 / 09:01 CET/CEST
Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS
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Classification of GBC AG to dynaCERT Inc.
Company Name: dynaCERT Inc.
ISIN: CA26780A1084
Reason for the research: Research Comment
Recommendation: Buy
Target price: 0.75 CAD
Target price on sight of: 31.12.2025
Last rating change:
Analyst: Matthias Greiffenberger, Marcel Goldmann
dynaCERT Enters 2025 with Renewed Momentum Amid Strengthening Market Fit and
Carbon Credit Tailwind
dynaCERT enters 2025 with building momentum and a significantly improved
commercial position. The global regulatory environment continues to tighten
around emissions and fuel efficiency, and dynaCERT's proprietary
hydrogen-on-demand technology is increasingly seen as a viable and scalable
retrofit solution. The approval of the company's carbon credit methodology
by Verra marks a turning point, providing the foundation for a complementary
revenue stream that aligns with global sustainability goals. Together with
strengthening product-market fit and renewed investor confidence reflected
in recent financings, the company appears poised to accelerate along its
commercialization path.
FY2024 revenues came in at CAD 1.60 million, significantly below our initial
forecast of CAD 2.40 million. Despite this shortfall, top-line growth
remains robust compared to FY2023, with revenue more than tripling
year-over-year (FY2023: CAD 0.45 million). The discrepancy versus our
projection appears to be timing-related rather than structural. Although Q4
did not deliver the level of acceleration we expected, the company's
pipeline development, particularly with repeat orders in energy and mining
sectors, supports the assumption that demand is not fundamentally impaired.
The sales model continues to exhibit lumpy, project-based characteristics,
which introduces volatility into quarter-to-quarter revenues. From a
regional perspective, Canada remains the dominant market, with initial
traction being established in Europe and Latin America through expanded
dealer activity. We note, however, that meaningful international ramp-up is
still in early stages. The homologation approval in Europe and strengthening
of the German subsidiary's operational team are important enablers but have
not yet translated into significant sales volumes.
One of the most significant medium-term catalysts remains the successful
monetization of carbon credits through Verra-certified methodologies.
dynaCERT has achieved a milestone here: Verra approved its new methodology
in late 2024, and the company is now progressing with its Project Design
Document. This validates one of the central tenets of our original
thesis-the creation of an annuity-like, margin-accretive revenue stream
through emissions tracking and credit issuance using HydraLytica(TM).
We continue to exclude carbon credit monetization from our short-term base
case but recognize its potential to meaningfully shift the margin and cash
flow profile as early as FY2026. The operational link between HydraGEN(TM)
installations and credit generation-via HydraLytica's data pipeline-remains
a key differentiator.
Despite the weaker-than-expected results in FY2024, we are maintaining our
FY2025 revenue forecast of CAD 12 million, supported by visible traction in
core markets and strategic deployments in high-volume verticals like mining
and transportation. We will monitor Q1 2025 sales activity closely and may
revise projections should order conversion rates lag further. Importantly,
the demand-side fundamentals remain strong, particularly under increasingly
stringent emissions regulations in North America and Europe.
Our DCF-derived price target of CAD 0.75 remains unchanged at this time.
While execution risk is elevated, particularly with respect to liquidity
management and sales cycle length, the potential upside from scaling
hardware and software revenues and unlocking carbon credit flows remains
substantial.
We reaffirm our Buy rating on dynaCERT Inc., recognizing the short-term
financial volatility but maintaining confidence in the long-term equity
story. The commercial viability of HydraGEN(TM), validated both technically and
now in early adoption curves, coupled with the tailwind of carbon
monetization, supports a high-risk, high-reward profile. Continued progress
on scaling sales, streamlining cost structures, and closing strategic
financings will be pivotal in validating the company's inflection point
narrative over the next 12 months.
You can download the research here: http://www.more-ir.de/d/32268.pdf
Contact for questions:
GBC AG
Halderstraße 27
86150 Augsburg
0821 / 241133 0
research@gbc-ag.de
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Beim oben analysierten Unternehmen ist folgender möglicher
Interessenkonflikt gegeben: (5a,6a,11); Einen Katalog möglicher
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Completion: 16.04.2025 (10:30 a.m.)
First distribution: 17.04.2025 (9:00 a.m.)
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2119344 17.04.2025 CET/CEST
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