Original-Research: Warimpex Finanz- und Beteiligungsholding AG (von East Valu...
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Original-Research: Warimpex Finanz- und Beteiligungsholding AG - from East
Value Research GmbH
05.12.2025 / 08:00 CET/CEST
Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS
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The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research. The
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Classification of East Value Research GmbH to Warimpex Finanz- und
Beteiligungsholding AG
Company Name: Warimpex Finanz- und Beteiligungsholding AG
ISIN: AT0000827209
Reason for the research: Update
from: 04.12.2025
Target price: EUR 1.02
Target price on sight of: 12-months
Last rating change:
Analyst: Adrian Kowollik
1. Warimpex (WXF) continues to underperform against our forecasts. While its
9M/25 results were significantly above last year on a like-for-like basis,
they render our previous full-year 2025E estimates unrealistic. On the
positive side, cost discipline and a strong office rental business in Poland
- where real wages are growing at over 4% and GDP growth is expected to be
3.2-3.5% in 2025E-2026E - stood out. On the negative side, the weak hotel
business was notable; we believe that in 2024 it was almost entirely
supported by fees WXF received from the city of Darmstadt for lodging
Ukrainian refugees. Additionally, net debt further increased (EUR 145m vs.
EUR 140.4m in H1/25). Given the high net gearing of 212.1% and the current
state of the Polish real estate market, which experienced a prolonged
year-long boom, we find it risky that WXF plans to finance 80% of the costs
related to the MOG31 residential project in Cracow with debt. Our updated
valuation model, now based on a weighted average of a SOTP valuation (50%,
including an NPV model of the MOG31 project and a NNNAV) and a peer group
comparison (50%), reflects lower estimates for 2025E-2026E and derives a
12-months PT of EUR 1.02 (prev. EUR 1.13). The MOG31 residential project -
comprising over 8,100 sqm of premium apartments, retail space, and parking
lots -received its building permit in October, and we expect completion by
the end of 2027E.
2. In 9M/25, Warimpex generated revenues of EUR 14.8m (-6.2% y-o-y), EBITDA
of EUR 1m (+17.1% y-o-y), and net income (excl. one-offs) of EUR -4.4m (vs.
EUR -12.4m). The Investment Properties segment contributed EUR 10.5m (+12%
y-o-y; EBITDA margin of 43.7% vs. 44.1% in 9M/24), the Hotels segment EUR
3.2m (-29%; EBITDA margin of -4.8% vs. 13.2%), and Development & Services
EUR 1m (-43.9%; EBITDA margin of -333.2% vs. -211.5%). Expenses directly
related to revenues declined by 12.1% y-o-y, and the net financial result
improved by EUR 1.1m, signalling better cost control and lower financing
costs. However, net gearing (212.1%; H1/25: 200.7%; 31/12/2024: 187%) and
equity ratio (29%; H1/25: 30.3%; 31/12/2024: 31.8%) deteriorated further,
which remains concerning.
3. Based on the 9M/25 results, we have cut our estimates for 2025E - and for
2026E-2027E due to base effects. While Warimpex will likely receive
prepayments for apartments at its MOG31 project during construction, we
anticipate that related revenues and profits will be recognized only in
2028E. For full-year 2025E, we now forecast revenues of EUR 19.1m (prev. EUR
20.4m), EBITDA of EUR 1.2m (prev. EUR 1.7m), EBIT of EUR -150k (prev. EUR
1.2m), and net income of EUR -5.9m (prev. EUR -4.8m).
You can download the research here:
https://eqs-cockpit.com/c/fncls.ssp?u=5f0a07c512f7c93c64fd51317f5818cc
For additional information visit our website: https://eastvalueresearch.com/
Contact for questions:
Adrian Kowollik
Email: ak@eastvalueresearch.com
Tel.: +49 30 20609082
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2240826 05.12.2025 CET/CEST
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