Original-Research: ZEAL Network SE (von NuWays AG): BUY
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Original-Research: ZEAL Network SE - from NuWays AG
23.02.2026 / 09:00 CET/CEST
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Classification of NuWays AG to ZEAL Network SE
Company Name: ZEAL Network SE
ISIN: DE000ZEAL241
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: BUY
Target price: EUR 67
Target price on sight of: 12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst: Simon Keller
The odds remain compelling
Following a multiple compression over the last years (2026e EV/EBITDA c. 37%
below 5-year historic median), ZEAL's structural growth profile and earnings
trajectory remain intact, creating an attractive entry point into the
ongoing online penetration story.
The 2026 regulatory agenda looks pro incumbent and pro enforcement, which
should be supportive for ZEAL. First, the evidence-based review of current
regulation (GlüStV) by the gambling regulator (GGL) is likely to result in
minor adjustments at most (such as technical clarifications), as the joint
body of Germany's 16 state lottery operators (DLTB) continues to portray the
current framework as well calibrated.
Second, and the more important, regulatory cross read is positive
enforcement momentum. In February, Baden-Württemberg approved moving forward
with an amendment to the GlüStV explicitly aimed at strengthening
enforcement and supervision. The focus is on tougher action against illegal
online offers. Every incremental enforcement step, including IP blocking as
a policy tool, increases the odds of demand shifting into regulated
channels. As Germany's leading online lottery broker with c. 44% market
share, ZEAL looks set to be the primary beneficiary.
Beyond the regulatory tailwind, the core mid-term driver remains the shift
of lottery demand into online channels. Online penetration in Germany can
plausibly move beyond 50% mid-term (eNuW), up from 31% today, as the digital
customer journey is simpler than offline. As the clear online leader, ZEAL
should capture a disproportionate share of this migration and is seen to
reach 50% market share mid-term. While ZEAL still invests c. 30% of sales
into marketing, margins have meaningful upside once the market matures and
growth spending normalises. With c. 60% of billings subscription driven, the
revenue base is mostly recurring, supporting a step up in profitability when
growth investments can be lowered.
At the same time, ZEAL's Dream House Raffle is emerging as a meaningful
proprietary growth driver with structurally attractive economics and visible
scaling potential. With only 4 raffles in 2025, ZEAL is expected to generate
sales of EUR 17m (8% of group, eNuW). We see a credible path to scaling the
format up to EUR 50m by 2030 (c. 20% of current group revenues, eNuW).
Importantly, the format should carry a structurally higher margin than the
core lottery brokerage business, driven by a significantly higher take rate
on ticket billings (c. 46% vs. c. 17% for group).
ZEAL's execution has been consistently strong, with management converting
customer growth into margin expansion and cash generation, providing
confidence into future delivery. The company remains net cash positive,
providing downside protection and ample flexibility for continued capital
returns to shareholders.
BUY, PT EUR 67, based on DCF. - analyst change -
You can download the research here:
https://eqs-cockpit.com/c/fncls.ssp?u=3126102a87a17dd66a1cea67e70efa2c
For additional information visit our website:
https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed
Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss
bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenkonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben
analysierten Unternehmen befindet sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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2279610 23.02.2026 CET/CEST
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