Original-Research: Aspermont Ltd. (von GBC AG): BUY
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Original-Research: Aspermont Ltd. - from GBC AG
01.06.2026 / 16:00 CET/CEST
Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS
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Classification of GBC AG to Aspermont Ltd.
Company Name: Aspermont Ltd.
ISIN: AU000000ASP3
Reason for the research: Research Report (Update)
Recommendation: BUY
Target price: 5.45 AUD
Target price on sight of: 30.09.2027
Last rating change:
Analyst: Matthias Greiffenberger, Cosmin Filker
H1 results confirm improving momentum and progress toward scalable Data &
Intelligence growth
Aspermont Ltd. reported solid H1 FY2025/26 results, with revenue from
continuing operations increasing by 11.3% to AUD 7.48m, compared with AUD
6.72m in the prior year period. The improvement was mainly driven by strong
growth in non-subscription revenues, while Subscriptions & Data Licensing
Revenue remained broadly stable. Reported net profit after tax amounted to
AUD 0.60m, compared with a net loss of AUD 1.28m in H1 FY2024/25. However,
the reported profit was supported by the fair value uplift of the strategic
investment in Tiko Critical Minerals, while the underlying result before
significant items remained negative.
Normalised EBITDA remained negative in H1 FY2025/26 at approximately AUD
-1.00m, compared with AUD -0.60m in the prior year period. This reflects
continued investment in Data & Intelligence, Mining IQ commercialisation and
additional sales capacity. However, the quarterly trend improved
significantly. Normalised EBITDA improved from AUD -0.80m in Q1 FY2025/26 to
AUD -0.20m in Q2 FY2025/26. In our view, this confirms that the company is
beginning to benefit from sequential operating leverage as revenue growth
returns and the resized cost base is increasingly utilised.
Cash flow development also showed a clear sequential improvement during H1
FY2025/26. Net cash used in operating activities amounted to AUD 1.49m in
the first half, compared with an operating cash outflow of AUD 0.06m in the
prior year period. The weaker year-on-year development mainly reflects the
ongoing investment phase and higher operating expenses. However, Q2
FY2025/26 operating cash flow moved close to break-even after the larger
cash outflow in Q1 FY2025/26. Cash receipts from customers amounted to AUD
7.71m, compared with AUD 7.43m in H1 FY2024/25. Management confirmed that
the company remains on track to become cash generative from Q3 FY2025/26.
Strategically, H1 FY2025/26 was an important period for the development of
the Data & Intelligence business. Aspermont completed the full product
roadmap, finalised the five-year business plan, established a dedicated
operating and leadership team and started platform build and data ingestion.
Mining IQ v1 is live with World Risk Analytics, while the 200-year archive
digitisation project remains on track for completion in Q4 FY2025/26. New
data product betas are expected in 2026, with initial data revenues expected
in 2027. The Rio Tinto enterprise contract provides an important validation
point for the commercialisation of Aspermont's proprietary archive content
and AI-enabled intelligence solutions.
The core subscription business remains the foundation of the investment
case. Subscriptions & Data Licensing Revenue amounted to AUD 5.10m in H1
FY2025/26, compared with AUD 5.03m in the prior year period. This includes
AUD 5.00m of subscription revenue and AUD 0.10m of data licensing revenue
from the Rio Tinto enterprise contract. Aspermont continues to benefit from
more than 4,000 corporate subscriptions, 100.0% net retention, ARR above AUD
11.00m and a long-term ARPU CAGR of 17.0%. The company currently expects ARR
growth of approximately 7.0% to 8.0% on the existing run-rate, compared with
the full-year target of more than 10.0%. However, management continues to
expect stronger H2 momentum, supported by Data & Intelligence revenue,
enterprise agreements, refreshed go-to-market initiatives and pipeline
conversion.
We leave our forecasts unchanged. For FY2025/26, we continue to expect
revenue of AUD 16.90m and EBITDA of AUD 0.15m. For FY2027 and FY2028, we
forecast revenue growth to AUD 18.90m and AUD 21.30m, respectively, with
EBITDA increasing to AUD 1.67m and AUD 2.93m. On an underlying basis and
excluding the one-off fair value gain from the Tiko Critical Minerals
investment, we continue to expect a negative net result of AUD -0.95m in
FY2025/26 before a return to profitability in FY2027.
Overall, H1 FY2025/26 confirms the key elements of our investment case.
Aspermont is progressing from the FY2024/25 reset phase toward renewed
growth, improving cash generation and a higher value Data & Intelligence
model. While the company has not yet reached full earnings normalisation,
the sequential improvement within H1 FY2025/26 is encouraging. Based on the
roll-forward effect and the extension of our target price validity to
30.09.2027, previously 30.09.2026, we increase our target price to AUD 5.45
per share and confirm our BUY rating.
You can download the research here:
https://eqs-cockpit.com/c/fncls.ssp?u=4186e16f1d4fdee01e0dcf3ac314e021
Contact for questions:
GBC AG
Halderstraße 27
86150 Augsburg
0821 / 241133 0
research@gbc-ag.de
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Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG und Art. 20 MAR
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Interessenkonflikt gegeben: (5a,11); Einen Katalog möglicher
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Completion: 01.06.2026 (2:00 p.m.)
First distribution: 01.06.2026 (4:00 p.m.)
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