Original-Research: Almonty Industries Inc. (von GBC AG): Buy
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Original-Research: Almonty Industries Inc. - from GBC AG
20.08.2026 / 10:00 CET/CEST
Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS
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The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research. The
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invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.
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Classification of GBC AG to Almonty Industries Inc.
Company Name: Almonty Industries Inc.
ISIN: CA0203987072
Reason for the research: Research Note
Recommendation: Buy
Target price: 30.00 USD
Target price on sight of: 31.12.2027
Last rating change:
Analyst: Matthias Greiffenberger, Cosmin Filker
Sangdong enters production: exceptional tungsten pricing and expanded
offtake
Almonty has reached the most important milestone in its history. Sangdong is
no longer only a financed construction project: the plant began processing
stockpiled run-of-mine ore in July 2026 after first ore was delivered in
December 2025. The investment case has therefore moved from construction and
financing risk toward the more measurable questions of throughput, grade,
recovery, concentrate quality, customer acceptance and cash conversion. This
is an important de-risking step and creates the basis for Almonty to develop
into one of the largest non-Chinese tungsten suppliers.
The market backdrop remains exceptionally supportive. As of 14 August 2026,
the Fastmarkets Rotterdam APT price averaged US$3,087.50/MTU, within a range
of US$2,900-3,275/MTU and around 9.4 times the level recorded at the
beginning of 2025. China continues to account for approximately 79% of
global mine supply, while Western inventories remain limited and defense
sourcing requirements are becoming increasingly stringent. Against this
backdrop, Sangdong's scale, high grade, long mine life and location in South
Korea position it as a strategically important source of tungsten within an
allied supply chain. Once the operating ramp-up has been demonstrated, these
attributes should justify a valuation premium relative to conventional
single-asset mining companies.
Commercial visibility has also improved materially. The amended agreement
with Global Tungsten & Powders increases contracted Phase 1 volume by 40%,
extends the term to 21 years and improves pricing and payability by 6.3%.
Approximately 90% of expected Phase 1 output is covered. At current APT
reference levels, the contracted volume corresponds to indicative annual
revenue of around US$490m. This remains a price-linked run rate rather than
guaranteed fixed revenue, but the agreement substantially reduces placement
and qualification risk while preserving commodity price exposure.
The US$800m convertible notes are treated as debt in the equity bridge. The
initial conversion price is approximately US$27.40 per share, while the
associated capped-call transactions are expected to offset the conversion
spread above principal up to the US$41.36 cap price, subject to their terms.
As our US$30.00 target lies within this range, we model no incremental net
dilution from the notes and fully reflect their principal amount as debt.
The valuation uses 288.48m basic shares. Outstanding warrants and options
are valued separately using Black-Scholes, and their US$30.11m economic
value is deducted once from equity value. RSUs and if-converted shares are
excluded from the denominator.
We forecast revenue of US$365.9m in 2026, US$1.32bn in 2027 and US$1.49bn in
2028. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to reach US$329.7m, US$1.22bn and
US$1.30bn, while free cash flow increases to US$95.8m, US$694.9m and
US$958.7m. The step-up reflects a partial-year Sangdong contribution in
2026, a much broader operating contribution and Phase 2 volume in 2027, and
a peak ramp profile in 2028. The very high initial margins are supported by
extraordinary tungsten pricing and the quality of the orebody, but they also
make the forecast highly sensitive to recovery, payability and APT
normalization.
Further upside should be earned through operating evidence. Stable monthly
throughput, improving recovery, customer-approved concentrate, recurring
shipments and visible cash receipts would validate the forecast and reduce
the execution discount. The main risks are a slower commissioning curve,
lower-than-expected grade or recovery, APT normalization, customer
concentration, capital deployment outside the forecast and dilution if the
convertible or equity incentives develop less favorably than assumed. In our
view, the balance of these factors remains clearly positive, while the
shares retain a high-risk classification.
You can download the research here:
https://nwr.eqs-cockpit.com/fncls2.ssx?fn=redirect&u=416def157f0b055af4d00b6f92a8a613
Contact for questions:
GBC AG
Halderstraße 27
86150 Augsburg
0821 / 241133 0
research@gbc-ag.de
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Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG und Art. 20 MAR
Beim oben analysierten Unternehmen ist folgender möglicher
Interessenkonflikt gegeben: (5a,7,11); Einen Katalog möglicher
Interessenkonflikte finden Sie unter:
https://www.gbc-ag.de/de/Offenlegung.htm
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Completion: 19.08.2026 (16:00)
First distribution: 20.08.2026 (10:00)
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2385918 20.08.2026 CET/CEST
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