Original-Research: ZEAL Network SE (von NuWays AG): BUY
^
Original-Research: ZEAL Network SE - from NuWays AG
21.10.2026 / 09:00 CET/CEST
Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS
Group.
The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research. The
result of this research does not constitute investment advice or an
invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Classification of NuWays AG to ZEAL Network SE
Company Name: ZEAL Network SE
ISIN: DE000ZEAL241
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: BUY
Target price: EUR 83
Target price on sight of: 12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst: Simon Keller
Q3 preview: cheap for the growth on offer
Ahead of Q3 results on 4 November, we raise FY26 EBITDA to EUR 74.9m, the
upper end of the EUR 70-75m guidance. Eurojackpot's return to its cap in Q4
creates a better backdrop for customer activation and marketing efficiency,
strengthening the year-end earnings outlook (eNuW).
A richer product mix supports Q3 revenue growth. We expect more profitable
team play and a rising contribution from proprietary raffles and freiheit+
to lift gross margins. Our EUR 311m lottery billings estimate (+1% yoy) sits
against a subdued market, with combined German Lotto and Eurojackpot stakes
down 3% yoy. While Q3 recorded 16 Lotto peak draws (vs. none in Q3 25),
Eurojackpot recorded no peak draws (vs. two in Q3 25). For ZEAL, Eurojackpot
peaks are more valuable than Lotto peaks, as they fit its marketing playbook
particularly well and trigger much greater incremental player spending,
making their Q4 return especially relevant for year-end growth (eNuW).
One-offs to mask c. 19% underlying EBITDA growth in our forecast. We expect
Q3 group sales to rise 19% yoy to EUR 72.7m, including EUR 7.5m from
SevenCanyon, implying c. 7% yoy organic growth. Our EUR 18.4m EBITDA forecast
(-2% yoy) incorporates c. EUR 4m of acquisition-related one-off costs.
Excluding these one-offs, EBITDA would reach EUR 22.4m, up c. 19% yoy, with a
broadly stable margin of 30.8% (eNuW). Full-year UK consolidation and the
removal of these one-off costs remain FY27 earnings drivers.
Q4 offers the more favourable jackpot mix. Three Eurojackpot draws at the EUR
120m cap compare with none in Q4 2025. We forecast Q4 EBITDA of EUR 17.7m
(+20% yoy), conservatively allowing for marketing spending of EUR 28.2m (+52%
yoy; eNuW). Lower-than-assumed marketing spending would leave scope for FY26
EBITDA to exceed the top end of guidance, in our view.
Higher spin limits reinforce the Games growth case. We forecast Q3 sales of
EUR 4.3m (+18.7% yoy). User growth remains central, with higher permitted
stakes supporting spending among eligible players. At an H1 EBITDA margin of
c. 41%, Games offers scope to lift group margins as it grows into a larger
share of sales (eNuW). Alongside proprietary lottery products, this broadens
the growth and margin expansion opportunity beyond the jackpot cycle (eNuW).
The valuation leaves substantial room for a re-rating. ZEAL trades at c. 11x
FY26e EV/EBITDA, while its five-year historical average is 81% higher
(eNuW). We see lottery digitalisation, international expansion and new
proprietary products driving an 18% sales CAGR 2025-28e. The discount looks
excessive for a business with these structural growth drivers and an
increasingly diversified revenue base.
Reiterate BUY, with an unchanged PT of EUR 83, based on DCF.
You can download the research here:
https://nwr.eqs-cockpit.com/fncls2.ssx?fn=redirect&u=6fe8df16f2a349ec5c4c0b309cafdf0a
For additional information visit our website:
https://www.nuways-ag.com/research
Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
++++++++++
Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss
bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenkonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben
analysierten Unternehmen befindet sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
++++++++++
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
The EQS Distribution Services include Regulatory Announcements,
Financial/Corporate News and Press Releases.
View original content:
https://eqs-news.com/?origin_id=5f26b983-cd17-11f1-9d22-0a083a71a9ab&lang=en
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
2419214 21.10.2026 CET/CEST
°