Original-Research: Verbio SE (von NuWays AG): BUY
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Original-Research: Verbio SE - from NuWays AG
21.10.2026 / 09:00 CET/CEST
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Classification of NuWays AG to Verbio SE
Company Name: Verbio SE
ISIN: DE000A0JL9W6
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: BUY
Target price: EUR 41
Target price on sight of: 12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst: Jorge Gonzalez
Q1 preview: Strong start supports FY26/27 outlook
VERBIO is set for a strong start to FY26/27, with Q1'26/27 EBITDA expected
to quadruple yoy to EUR 61.5m (eNuW), supported by stronger European biodiesel
and ethanol spreads, higher utilisation as Nevada continues to ramp up, and
significantly higher German GHG quota prices. Nevertheless, EBITDA is seen
c. 11% below Q4'25/26, adjusted for the EUR 19m reversal of GHG quota
inventory impairments. This mainly reflects normalising European ethanol
spreads (eNuW: c. EUR 230/t vs c. EUR 380/t in Q4). While GHG quota market
prices have continued to rise qoq, we expect a higher share of deliveries
under fixed-price bilateral contracts rather than spot sales, keeping
realised prices broadly stable qoq.
Biodiesel EBITDA is expected to increase 60% yoy to EUR 36.1m, with broadly
equal contributions to growth from higher market spreads (+70% yoy to EUR
184/t, eNuW) and higher GHG quota prices (eNuW: EUR 430/t CO, up c. EUR 280/t
yoy). Biodiesel spreads have recovered sharply after approaching break-even
in April-June, when vegetable oil prices initially reacted more strongly
than biodiesel prices to expectations of higher renewable fuel demand
following regulatory changes in Europe and the US (Germany's RED III
implementation and higher US renewable fuel blending obligations for 2026-27
under the RFS). Market spreads are expected to improve further sequentially
in Q2 to above EUR 250/t (eNuW), although the timing of feedstock purchases
and biodiesel sales may affect realised margins.
Bioethanol/Biomethane EBITDA is seen improving by c. EUR 35m yoy to EUR 25.8m,
primarily driven by higher GHG quota prices (c. EUR 30m contribution to yoy
growth, eNuW), alongside slightly stronger market spreads and increasing
biomethane volumes in Nevada. Against Q4, EBITDA is expected to decline c.
28%, excluding the inventory impairment reversal, mainly reflecting the
aforementioned normalisation of European ethanol spreads. Other activities
and consolidation are expected to contribute EUR -0.4m to group EBITDA.
Net income is expected to recover to EUR 25.0m (eNuW, vs EUR -4m in Q1'25/26),
assuming an effective tax rate of c. 43%, elevated by US losses for which no
tax benefit is recognised. Improving US profitability should gradually lower
the group's effective tax rate over the course of FY26/27.
The anticipated strong start to the year underpins our FY26/27 estimates,
with upside potential from higher-than-assumed GHG quota prices or a
prolonged period of elevated biodiesel spreads. Beyond the current year, the
recent CMD reinforced our investment case, highlighting illustrative
mid-cycle EBITDA of c. EUR 300m, progress in renewable chemicals and
additional upside from US tax incentives. Lower capex and the planned
monetisation of accumulated GHG quotas (eNuW: EUR 220m in cash proceeds)
should further support cash generation. We reiterate BUY and our EUR 41 price
target, based on the average FY27/28-FY28/29 FCF yield. -Q1 estimates table
on next page-
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Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss
bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenkonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben
analysierten Unternehmen befindet sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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2419212 21.10.2026 CET/CEST
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