Original-Research: Rainbow Tours S.A. (von East Value Research GmbH ): BUY
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Original-Research: Rainbow Tours S.A. - from East Value Research GmbH
02.11.2026 / 08:57 CET/CEST
Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS
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Classification of East Value Research GmbH to Rainbow Tours S.A.
Company Name: Rainbow Tours S.A.
ISIN: PLRNBWT00031
Reason for the research: Q3 Preview & Update
Recommendation: BUY
from: 02.11.2026
Target price: PLN 204,70
Target price on sight of: 12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst: Adrian Kowollik
Although we believe that Rainbow Tours (RBW) offers the best exposure to the
promising travel sectors of Poland and Romania -the two largest CEE
countries - the company, like its Western peers, is currently negatively
impacted by the conflict in the Middle East. According to IATA, due to the
Iran war that started on February 28, 2026, average weekly jet fuel prices
in Europe/CIS are 127.2% above the prior year's average. This has most
likely already started to weigh on RBW, as in our view the company typically
hedges fuel costs 6-12 months in advance. Additionally, the PLN is c. 4% and
8% weaker y-o-y against the EUR and USD, respectively, which is highly
relevant when RBW reserves hotels and airlines for planned holiday trips.
Moreover, due to high uncertainty, a larger share of clients is booking
cheaper last-minute trips. In our view, despite 6.6% higher bookings for the
summer season in Poland, RBW's Q3/26E results were also negatively impacted
by lower-than-expected gross margins in Romania; with prel. Q3 revenues of
PLN 2.39bn (+13.8% y-o-y), we forecast an EBITDA of PLN 160.4m (-24.1%), and
a net income of PLN 121.4m (-24.1%). We expect that in Q4/26E and H1/27E
unfavorable fuel costs and FX rates will continue to have an impact on RBW's
results. Despite lower profitability estimates, our 12-months PT (80% DCF,
20% peer group) remains unchanged at PLN 204.70 due to a higher net cash
figure and peer-group-based FV. In our view, for long-term,
dividend-oriented investors, RBW remains an attractive pick.
H1/26 results In Jan-June 2026, RBW generated 10.4% higher revenues y-o-y of
PLN 2bn. Despite stronger competition, the largest Touristic segment
contributed PLN 1.96bn (+10.1% y-o-y) of revenues and a 14.3% gross margin
(H1/25: 16%). Foreign revenues within the segment, which reflect 70%
Romanian subsidiary Paralela 45 Turism that has been consolidated since
August 2025, increased c. 5x to PLN 105.9m. The Hotels segment saw revenues
+17.5% to PLN 22.4m (gross margin: -9.4% vs. -20.1% in H1/25), whereby
profitability was likely impacted by costs related to preparation for the
summer season. A 1.6% lower gross margin on group level and 20.2% higher
administration expenses y-o-y following, we believe, the expansion in
Romania resulted in a 27.3% lower EBIT y-o-y of PLN 74.9m (3.8% margin vs.
5.7% in H1/25). Consequently, net operating cash flow declined by 31.3% to
PLN 162m. Nevertheless, net cash went up to PLN 436m from PLN 154.2m at the
end of Q1/26 due to client prepayments.
You can download the research here:
https://nwr.eqs-cockpit.com/fncls2.ssx?fn=redirect&u=4f4712603fb6d863443538fafbd83e9a
For additional information visit our website: https://eastvalueresearch.com/
Contact for questions:
Adrian Kowollik
Tel. +49 30 20609082
Email: ak@eastvalueresearch.com
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2426134 02.11.2026 CET/CEST
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