Original-Research: Media and Games Invest SE (von GBC AG): BUY
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Original-Research: Media and Games Invest SE - von GBC AG
Einstufung von GBC AG zu Media and Games Invest SE
Unternehmen: Media and Games Invest SE
ISIN: SE0018538068
Anlass der Studie: Research Note
Empfehlung: BUY
Kursziel: 5.40 EUR
Letzte Ratingänderung:
Analyst: Marcel Goldmann, Cosmin Filker
FY 2022 closed with positive operating performance; Strong new customer
acquisition enabled high growth; Positioning as a fully integrated ad tech
platform should ensure further dynamic growth; Price target slightly
lowered; Buy rating confirmed
Turnover and earnings development 2022
On 28 February 2023, Media and Games Invest SE published its preliminary
business figures for the past financial year 2022. According to these
figures, the technology group with its advertising software platform
(so-called Ad-Tech platform) continued its dynamic growth course in the
past financial year with an increase in turnover of 28.7% to EUR 324.44
million (previous year: EUR 252.17 million). Despite difficult general
conditions and the market situation (budget cuts, declining CPM, etc.), the
company succeeded in maintaining its growth rate and gaining market share.
The significant increase in turnover was based on both organic and
inorganic turnover effects (18.0% organic growth & 11.0% inorganic growth).
The significant increase in Group revenues was primarily driven by the
continued growth in digital advertising revenues (ad software revenues) of
the Group. In the past financial year, ad software revenues increased
significantly by 49.2% to EUR 259.55 million (previous year: EUR 174.00
million) and thus accounted for around 80.0% of Group revenues.
The strong acquisition of new customers proved to be a significant growth
driver of this digital advertising business. In the past financial year,
133 new software customers were added to the customer portfolio, which
currently consists of 551 customers (end of 2021: 418). In addition, the ad
tech business also benefited from the clearly positive effects of M&A
measures (e.g. AxesInMotion, DataSeat, etc.).
Parallel to the positive development of turnover, significant increases
were also achieved at the operating result level. Compared to the previous
year, EBITDA increased significantly by 30.3% to EUR 84.75 million (previous
year: EUR 65.04 million). EBITDA, adjusted for one-off effects (e.g. special
and restructuring costs from M&A transactions), also increased
significantly by 31.1% to EUR 93.20 million (previous year: EUR 71.10 million).
As a result, the adjusted EBITDA margin increased slightly to 28.7%
(previous year: 28.2%). At the net level, a negative consolidated result of
EUR -20.41 million (previous year: EUR 16.06 million) had to be accepted due to
a one-time depreciation effect (one-time PPA depreciation on intangible
assets) and higher tax and interest charges. This one-off depreciation
effect resulted from an adjustment of the corporate strategy and a related
withdrawal from business activities with small MMO games. Adjusted for the
non-recurring and regular PPA amortisation of EUR 41.49 million, the adjusted
group result was EUR 21.09 million.
The most recent corporate guidance issued by MGI management was thus
achieved at the upper end of the target range. Our turnover estimate
(turnover: EUR 307.22 million) and adjusted EBITDA forecast (adjusted EBITDA:
EUR 91.72 million) were exceeded. However, due to the PPA amortisation, which
we did not anticipate in this amount, the net result was significantly
below our expectations.
Forecasts and evaluation
With the publication of the preliminary figures, MGI has confirmed the
previously published medium-term guidance (revenue CAGR: 25.0% - 30.0%;
Adj. EBITDA margin: 25.0% - 30.0%). In addition, the technology company
plans to announce a concrete company forecast for the current financial
year 2023 with the publication of the Q1 business figures or hereafter.
Based on the current company performance, we have slightly reduced our
revenue and EBITDA estimates for the current 2023 financial year from a
conservative perspective and now expect revenue of EUR 340.12 million
(previously: EUR 345.11 million) and EBITDA of EUR 89.44 million (previously: EUR
96.05 million). For the coming financial year 2024, we are leaving our
previous operating estimates unchanged. In addition, we have included the
2025 financial year in our detailed estimates for the first time.
Against the background that we expect significantly higher interest and tax
expenses in the future than was previously the case, we have significantly
lowered our net forecasts for the 2023 and 2024 financial years.
Overall, we continue to see MGI well-positioned to further expand its
market position with its leading ad tech platform with proprietary games
content, innovative contextual customer solutions and multi-channel
platform approach. Even in a difficult advertising market, this technology
group should succeed in continuing its successful course with its promising
focus on digital programmatic advertising. In doing so, the company should
be able to benefit in particular from the increased customer demand for
efficient (digital) advertising solutions.
Within the framework of our DCF valuation model, we have slightly reduced
our target price to EUR 5.40 (previously: EUR 5.75 per share) due to our
adjusted estimates and the increased cost of capital. The resulting
lowering of the target price was offset by the first-time inclusion of FY
2025 in our detailed estimation period and the associated higher starting
point for the subsequent estimation periods. In view of the current price
level, we continue to give the share a 'Buy' rating and see signi-ficant
upside potential.
Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/26523.pdf
Kontakt für Rückfragen
GBC AG
Halderstrasse 27
86150 Augsburg
0821 / 241133 0
research@gbc-ag.de
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Date (time) of completion: 07/03/2023 (10:57)
Date (time) of first distribution: 08/03/2023 (10:30)
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