Original-Research: UmweltBank AG (von GBC AG): Buy
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Original-Research: UmweltBank AG - from GBC AG
15.11.2024 / 10:01 CET/CEST
Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS
Group AG.
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Classification of GBC AG to UmweltBank AG
Company Name: UmweltBank AG
ISIN: DE0005570808
Reason for the research: Research Comment
Recommendation: Buy
Target price: EUR 10.00
Target price on sight of: 31.12.2025
Last rating change:
Analyst: Cosmin Filker, Marcel Goldmann
Nine months 2024: operating performance in line with expectations; sharp
increase in interest result expected from 2025
For the current financial year 2024, UmweltBank AG has started to report the
most important key figures on a quarterly basis for the first time. Even
though the Q3 figures presented here are missing a comparable figure from
the previous year, they still provide a good interim status for the current
financial year.
After nine months, UmweltBank AG reports net interest income of EUR28.80
million and is thus well on track to achieve the expected increase over the
previous year's figure for the year as a whole. The basis for the increase
in net interest income during the year lies, on the one hand, in the rise in
customer deposits to EUR3.7 billion (31 December 2020: EUR2.8 billion), which
were invested in a higher interest rate environment at higher interest
rates. In addition, legacy treasury holdings were reinvested, which,
according to the company, accounts for a difference of up to 100 basis
points. Although the company recorded new lending business of EUR115 million
in the first three quarters, the total volume of loans fell to EUR3.50 billion
(31 December 2023: EUR3.72 billion) due to repayments and redemptions. Net
interest income is therefore likely to have benefited in particular from the
reallocation of own investments and the investment of customer deposits.
At the same time, the credit institution reported a financial result of
EUR18.10 million after nine months of 2024. This includes the sale of a total
of six wind farm investments and two real estate investments. In principle,
UmweltBank AG plans to sell its investment portfolio in the next three
financial years in order to release equity. Further investment disposals are
planned for the fourth quarter, although the expected income from these
cannot yet be quantified.
Together with commission and trading income of EUR3.10 million, the company
reports total income of around EUR50 million after nine months. This is offset
by total expenses of EUR45.4 million. The expenses also include increased
expenses in connection with investments in marketing and IT. According to
the company, expenses in the range of EUR7-10 million are expected to be of a
one-off nature by the end of the 2024 financial year. Earnings before taxes
as of 30 September 2024 were EUR3.6 million.
With the publication of the Q3 figures for 2024, the management of
UmweltBank confirmed the guidance, according to which a pre-tax result
between EUR -5 million and EUR -10 million is to be achieved for the current
financial year 2024. Total income of around EUR70m is expected to be offset by
total expenses of around EUR75m (including the bank deposit). In the coming
financial year 2025, an improvement in total income should even be
accompanied by a decline in total expenses, which should lead to a
significantly positive pre-tax result again.
During the presentation of the Q3 figures, UmweltBank's CEO Dietmar von
Blücher showed how net interest income should benefit from the repositioning
in treasury. In particular, new investments at better conditions should
improve net interest income in the 2025 financial year to between EUR65
million and EUR70 million, an increase of over EUR20 million compared to the
previous year. By contrast, the financial result, which is still benefiting
in the current financial year from a high contribution from the sale of
investments, is expected to decline. Although the company still plans to
gradually reduce its investment portfolio, it is not possible at present to
forecast the expected contribution to earnings.
In our adjusted forecasts, we take into account a stronger development of
the interest result, particularly for the estimate years 2025 and 2026, but
at the same time reduce our forecasts of the financial result. Overall, we
expect total income to increase from EUR57.33m (2023) to EUR70.74m (2024e),
EUR77.97m (2025e) and EUR87.13m (2026e). As we expect costs to rise at a
disproportionately low rate from 2025, UmweltBank AG should return to
profit.
On the basis of the adjusted valuation according to the residual income
model, we have determined a new fair value of EUR10.00 (previously: EUR9.63). We
are maintaining our BUY rating.
You can download the research here: http://www.more-ir.de/d/31323.pdf
Contact for questions:
GBC AG
Halderstraße 27
86150 Augsburg
0821 / 241133 0
research@gbc-ag.de
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Beim oben analysierten Unternehmen ist folgender möglicher
Interessenkonflikt gegeben: (1,4,5a,6a,7,11); Einen Katalog möglicher
Interessenkonflikte finden Sie unter:
https://www.gbc-ag.de/de/Offenlegung
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Date (time) Completion: 15.11.24 (7:30 am)
Date (time) first transmission: 15.11.24 (10:00 am)
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2030711 15.11.2024 CET/CEST
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