Original-Research: ZEAL Network SE (von NuWays AG): BUY
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Original-Research: ZEAL Network SE - from NuWays AG
04.08.2025 / 09:00 CET/CEST
Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS
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The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research. The
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Classification of NuWays AG to ZEAL Network SE
Company Name: ZEAL Network SE
ISIN: DE000ZEAL241
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: BUY
from: 04.08.2025
Target price: EUR 64.00
Target price on sight of: 12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst: Henry Wendisch
Q2 Preview: Solid growth amid normalizing user metrics
Topic: Following our Q2 jackpot environment analysis, we fine-tuned our Q2
estimates. Here's what we expect for ZEAL's Q2 results due on Wednesday,
August 6th 2025:
Lottery business to be driven by price increases. For the last time, ZEAL's
lottery sales should benefit from the base-effect following the price
increases of last year, which was imposed in July 2024. Therefore, we see
lottery sales to grow by 25% yoy to EUR 45m. This implies a lower momentum
than in the previous quarters affected by the same price increase effect
(Q3'24: +49% yoy; Q4'24: + 131% yoy; Q1'25: + 41% yoy), however, this should
be the natural cause of a normalized spending behavior. Mind you, Q1'25
benefitted from strong spill-over effects of the enormous lottery
environment of Q4 (as players continued to play into Q1 with elevated
spending per user), whereas Q2 should show a normalized user spending again,
in line with historical user habits. Consequently, lottery billings are seen
to come in mostly flat yoy in Q2 (eNuW: EUR 259m, -0.7% yoy), on the back of a
higher expected user base (MAUs: +10% yoy) but also the decreasing ABPU of EUR
57 (-10% yoy; eNuW) due to the effect described above. Also, the rising
billings share of the highly successful product "Dream House Raffle" (part
of the lottery business) comes with lower ABPUs (but higher billings
margins) than the classical lottery brokers business, thus explaining the
weaker ABPU further.
Games business to gain more traction. ZEAL should have made further progress
on the games portfolio roll-out in Q2, with notably more games offered to
players. Not only does a broad offering attract additional players, it also
maintains and foster playing habits of existing players. Therefore, we
expect the Games business to show sales of EUR 3.7m (+62% yoy and +10% qoq) on
the back of 48% yoy higher MAUs and 8% higher ARPUs (eNuW).
In sum, group sales are seen to grow by 24% yoy to EUR 50.6m in Q2. With
subdued marketing expenses (Q2 was rather uneventful in terms of jackpot
environment) expected at EUR 13.5m, group EBITDA should arrive with strong
margins at EUR 17.6m (+66% yoy; 35% EBITDA margin).
Our estimates imply H1 sales of EUR 102m and an EBITDA of EUR 35.4m. By simply
assuming this run-rate for FY'25e (sales: EUR 204m, EBITDA EUR 71m), the top-end
of the guidance (see bottom-right of this page) looks in reach or even
beatable. However, we expect significantly more marketing spending
throughout H2, especially on the "Dream House Raffle". Moreover, we expect a
sequential improvement in lottery sales on the back of further user intake
and stable ARPUs. Consequently, we are positioned above the guidance with
sales reaching EUR 214m and an EBITDA of EUR 67m in FY'25e.
Therefore, we reiterate our BUY recommendation with an unchanged PT of EUR
64.00, based on DCF.
You can download the research here:
https://eqs-cockpit.com/c/fncls.ssp?u=674d428e802be1e01881968420217be9
For additional information visit our website:
https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed
Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss
bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben
analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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2178680 04.08.2025 CET/CEST
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