Original-Research: Advanced Blockchain AG (von GBC AG): Buy
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Original-Research: Advanced Blockchain AG - from GBC AG
18.11.2025 / 12:00 CET/CEST
Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS
Group.
The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research. The
result of this research does not constitute investment advice or an
invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.
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Classification of GBC AG to Advanced Blockchain AG
Company Name: Advanced Blockchain AG
ISIN: DE000A0M93V6
Reason for the research: Research Report (Note)
Recommendation: Buy
Target price: 3.79 EUR
Target price on sight of: 31.12.2026
Last rating change:
Analyst: Matthias Greiffenberger, Cosmin Filker
Advanced Blockchain 2.0
Advanced Blockchain AG recently presented its new strategy paper on ABAG
2.0. The proposed strategic realignment of Advanced Blockchain AG aims to
transform the previously highly opportunistic and incubation-driven business
model into a predictable, capital market-ready, and multi-diversified
platform model. The starting point is a self-critical analysis of the ABAG
1.0 phase, in which rapid growth, a large number of companies, and a high
proportion of illiquid, partly token-based commitments had led to a level of
complexity that could no longer be managed with a very small core team. In
addition, from an investor's perspective, this phase was burdened by issues
such as insufficient transparency, delayed or cumbersome reporting, and
excessive dependence on market windows, i.e., times when tokens or
investments could actually be liquidated. The new strategy addresses
precisely these issues and aims to improve earnings, balance sheet quality,
and governance simultaneously.
At the heart of the strategic planning is the development of a clearly
structured platform architecture with five distinct but closely interlinked
pillars. The first and most visible pillar is the treasury orientation. It
is intended to create a balance sheet basis based on a strategic Bitcoin
reserve, supplemented by a selective Ethereum component. This reserve
fulfills a dual function. On the one hand, it creates an on-chain verifiable
asset that can be communicated to investors in a transparent and credible
manner. In addition to Bitcoin, other tokens can also be used as verifiable
reserves. Second, ABAG acts as a publicly-traded proxy for institutional
investors who are not allowed to invest directly in spot Bitcoin due to
regulatory, tax, or custody restrictions. The company is thus addressing a
market segment that has been underserved in Europe to date and positioning
itself in an emerging niche in which only a few publicly-traded 'Bitcoin
reserve' companies are currently active. At the same time, this structure
opens up the possibility of issuing capital market-oriented instruments such
as low-interest convertible bonds and reinvesting the funds raised in this
way back into the reserve. The plan describes this mechanism as a flywheel
effect: more Bitcoin leads to greater investor interest and a higher implied
company value. The increased value improves the issuance conditions,
allowing additional reserves to be built up. The treasury strategy is
flanked by a regime-based control model that divides market phases into
bullish, sideways, and bearish scenarios and provides defined allocation and
hedging measures for each phase. This framework primarily serves to reduce
risk. Beyond the simplified presentation in the strategy paper, the company
is working on an expanded internal model with more refined sub-regimes and
automated signal thresholds, which will undergo comprehensive backtesting
prior to operational implementation. The aim is to avoid having to liquidate
holdings even in periods of weakness, but rather to generate ongoing income
through structured instruments such as covered calls or conservative lending
approaches, thereby smoothing the volatility of treasury results.
The second pillar is the investment platform. In the future, the investment
arm will focus on token-based investments, both liquid tokens and SAFT
structures. Traditional equity investments will only be made in exceptional
cases ('edge cases'). Among other things, DePIN and robotics-related
infrastructures, the interface between artificial intelligence and
blockchain, tokenized real-world assets, and interoperability and
infrastructure layers are mentioned. A characteristic feature here is the
preference for tokens and SAFT structures over traditional equity, as these
generally allow for a faster return on capital and thus reduce portfolio
risk. In the medium to long term, the plan is to launch vertical special
funds. This would allow ABAG to decouple part of its value creation from its
own balance sheet risk and establish management fees as a recurring source
of income. For a small cap in the blockchain segment, this would be a
significantly more mature income mix than before.
The third pillar concerns innovation. The company recognizes that its
previous form of incubation, with high upfront costs, a large developer
base, and long amortization periods, is not financially sustainable in a
volatile market. Instead, access to innovation is to be established through
existing accelerator programs, grants, and ecosystem partnerships. ABAG
actively participates in deal sourcing for the programs by contributing its
own investment opportunities while also benefiting from its partners' deal
flow, creating a mutually beneficial deal sourcing structure. Access is thus
maintained, while capital intensity is reduced. This element is important
because it feeds the pipeline for the investment pillar without inflating
the balance sheet.
The fourth pillar is consulting for wealthy private structures and family
offices. The strategy assumes that acceptance of digital assets in this
segment has now increased significantly, but that operational expertise,
tooling, and governance are often lacking. ABAG aims to fill this gap by
supporting in setting up custody structures, selecting secure yield
strategies such as staking, restaking, or secured lending, and ongoing
portfolio monitoring. The key point is that these services can be
remunerated independently of token prices and can therefore be easily
established as a recurring component in the results. At the same time, a
circle of potential co-investors for future funds or direct transactions is
created.
The fifth pillar is an analytics or data infrastructure that has already
been designed under ABX Analytics. The analytics platform provides all
business pillars with standardized due diligence processes, data on
financing rounds, and project and market comparisons. It is a central
cross-sectional element that supports informed decisions in all areas. In
addition, the plan is to monetize this platform externally, for example in
the form of subscriptions or API access.
The timeline presented for 2026 to 2028 translates the strategic
architecture of ABAG 2.0 into a sequence of concrete milestones relevant to
the capital market. The first steps will be to stabilize the balance sheet
and organization, expand the treasury position, increase the proportion of
liquid assets, and launch the advisory unit. At the same time, the PoC
(proof of concept) and MVP (minimum viable product) of the analytics
platform are to be completed, but with explicit reference to previously
identified institutional pilot customers. The planned simplification of the
group structure in the same phase is imperative because only a streamlined
set of legal entities will enable standardized reporting and thus the
capital market transactions planned for later on to be carried out in a
technically sound manner.
In 2027, the focus of planning will shift noticeably from development and
testing to scaling. The first marketable Bitcoin-related product component
is planned, flanked by possible further capital market measures. At the same
time, the investment and consulting pillars will no longer work on an ad hoc
basis, but with active portfolio management and conversion of earlier
mandates into recurring engagements. The beta version of ABX Analytics is
also expected in this phase, which from a research perspective marks the
transition from internal enablement to an externally marketable product.
Particularly noteworthy is the placement of a first specialized investment
fund. If this step is successful, ABAG would have a structured, management
fee-eligible source of income for the first time that is not tied to its own
balance sheet funds and increases the attractiveness of the platform to
institutional investors.
The plan for 2028 is to have a fully developed and
operationally-consolidated platform. The plan is to introduce a second,
replicated Bitcoin product, continue to use capital-market-oriented
financing instruments, build a broadly diversified portfolio across all
defined verticals, and establish an institutionalized analytics unit with an
international customer base. ABAG is thus establishing a
bear-market-resilient business model with stable, recurring revenues spread
across all five pillars. In this final stage, the plan describes ABAG as a
hybrid institution between an investment house and a data-driven financial
platform that can both serve the innovation cycles of the blockchain economy
and translate them into the language and processes of traditional capital
market participants. The stages build on each other. Each subsequent stage
requires the successful implementation of the previous one. Without a
simplified structure and robust reporting, no convertible instruments can be
placed. Without initial paying mandates in consulting and without
functioning analytics pilots, it is not possible to credibly tell the story
of a recurring, non-market-cyclical business. On a positive note, the plan
implicitly takes these dependencies into account and does not assume sudden
jumps in revenue, but rather a sequential ramp-up based on verifiable
intermediate steps.
In evaluating this strategy, it is initially positive that it addresses the
weaknesses of the past very directly. The lack of recurring revenues will be
replaced by consulting mandates, future fund fees, treasury monetization,
and subscription fees from the ABX Analytics platform. The complex structure
is to be replaced by clearly defined pillars. The balance sheet risk of own
projects is mitigated by a shift toward external programs. The capital
market reference is also clearer than before. A listed company that
continuously verifies its digital reserves on chain, disciplines corporate
development through governance and reporting, and has a recognizable,
transferable model for treasury management is much easier for investors to
evaluate than a mixture of many small, difficult-to-assess ventures.
From our perspective, we can conclude that the strategy is conceptually
sound because it accepts the cyclical nature of crypto but seeks to cushion
it operationally. It combines a narrative that is well known and accepted in
the market, namely linking the share price to a growing Bitcoin reserve,
with elements that typically lead to higher multiples, namely recurring
consulting and platform revenues. The open questions do not lie in the
concept, but in the evidence. The decisive factors will be whether the
company achieves its first visible successes in the short term in terms of
its schedule and whether external customers not affiliated with the group
can be won over for the consulting or analytics track.
You can download the research here:
https://eqs-cockpit.com/c/fncls.ssp?u=3066e973a2dadc61f37b850c11962c21
Contact for questions:
GBC AG
Halderstraße 27
86150 Augsburg
0821 / 241133 0
research@gbc-ag.de
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Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG und Art. 20 MAR
Beim oben analysierten Unternehmen ist folgender möglicher
Interessenkonflikt gegeben: (5a,11); Einen Katalog möglicher
Interessenkonflikte finden Sie unter:
http://www.gbc-ag.de/de/Offenlegung
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Completion: 17.11.2025 (11:00 Uhr)
First disclosure: 18.11.2025 (12:00 Uhr)
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2231182 18.11.2025 CET/CEST
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