Original-Research: NFON AG (von NuWays AG): Buy
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Original-Research: NFON AG - from NuWays AG
21.11.2025 / 09:00 CET/CEST
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Classification of NuWays AG to NFON AG
Company Name: NFON AG
ISIN: DE000A0N4N52
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: Buy
from: 21.11.2025
Target price: EUR 11.10
Target price on sight of: 12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst: Philipp Sennewald
Yesterday, NFON released its Q3 report, which clearly reflects the
increasingly challenging environment in the European ICT market, visible in
soft top-line momentum and margin pressure. In detail:
Q3 sales were held broadly stable year-on-year at EUR 21.8m (+0.3% yoy; eNuW:
EUR 22.9m), demonstrating resilience despite a softer demand environment and
extended sales cycles.
Importantly, churn remained low and steady at 0.5% p.m., underscoring the
strength of the customer base. While the seat count decreased by 2.6% yoy to
648k, this was largely shaped by the challenging macro backdrop rather than
underlying customer dynamics. ARPU edged up to EUR 9.92, supported in part by
the Q2 price adjustments. Recurring revenues reached EUR 20.5m, representing a
robust 94.1% share and providing continued solid revenue visibility as the
company advances its AI-driven strategic transition.
As a result of the muted sales development and increased AI investments,
bottom-line margins came in slightly weaker yoy. Although we saw a further
improvement in gross margin thanks to the price increases (+0.9pp yoy to
86.5%), adj. EBITDA came in weaker at EUR 3.0m (-16% yoy; eNuW: EUR 3.5m) and a
12.7% margin (-1.7pp yoy) as the increased cost base outweighed efficiency
gains (i.e. DTS harmonization). On a positive note, FCF improved to EUR 1.3m
compared to the first half of the year (H1: EUR 0.7m) thanks to WC
normalization.
Against this backdrop, management decided to revise the FY25 guidance
downwards and is now targeting sales to grow by 1.0-2.5% yoy (eNuW new: +1%)
and an adj. EBITDA in the range of EUR 11.5-12.5m (eNuW new: EUR 11.6m), which
is conservatively implying a similar soft development in Q4. Importantly,
mid-term targets were confirmed with double-digit growth and >15% adj.
EBITDA margins by FY27.
In our view, the new leadership team has set the right strategic priorities
- including a clear AI road map (e.g., Nia FrontDesk), but tightened pricing
measures and stronger partner enablement - the translation into operational
momentum remains limited for now. While botario adds meaningful AI
capabilities and supports NFON's positioning in more complex use cases, its
contribution remains too small at this stage to offset the broader weakness
in the core PBX base.
Yet, we still regard the strategic direction as sound, even as the
operational turnaround is progressing slower than anticipated. With
execution now becoming more consistent, we see potential for gradual
improvement once market conditions stabilise and AI monetisation gains
traction.
Given the continued attractive valuation (6.7x EV/Adj. EBITDA FY25e), we
confirm our BUY rating with a new PT of EUR 11.10 (old: EUR 12.10) based on DCF.
You can download the research here:
https://eqs-cockpit.com/c/fncls.ssp?u=fd2c52b9b7775e9be4cc2a9574793360
For additional information visit our website:
https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed
Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss
bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben
analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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2233890 21.11.2025 CET/CEST
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