Original-Research: bet-at-home.com AG (von NuWays AG): BUY
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Original-Research: bet-at-home.com AG - from NuWays AG
02.11.2026 / 09:00 CET/CEST
Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS
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Classification of NuWays AG to bet-at-home.com AG
Company Name: bet-at-home.com AG
ISIN: DE000A0DNAY5
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: BUY
Target price: EUR 5
Target price on sight of: 12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst: Sarah Hellemann
Q3 26e: Gaming to take the lead on volume growth
bet-at-home.com will release its Q3 figures on November 5th. We expect top-
and bottom-line improvements, with particularly strong growth in Gaming. In
detail:
Strong GGR growth anticipated. GGR is to rise by 9.3% yoy to EUR 11.2m (eNuW),
with both segments contributing. Key growth drivers include an anticipated
improved Betting margin related to internal optimization efforts and an
acceleration in Gaming. Net revenue looks set to grow faster than GGR,
rising 11.1% yoy to EUR 8.5m (eNuW), as a higher Gaming share reduces the tax
burden (eNuW: EUR 2.7m, 24.5% of GGR).
Online Gaming GGR is seen to improve 23.6% yoy to EUR 2.1m (eNuW). Volumes are
seen to increase by 24% yoy to 17.4m (eNuW), as bet-at-home.com continues to
develop its Gaming business with targeted initiatives and a recent
regulatory change is seen to provide an additional boost. Effective July 1,
2026, the maximum permitted bet per spin in Germany increased from EUR 1 to EUR
3 and even as much as EUR 5 under certain conditions. We assume that
bet-at-home.com has implemented this as it came into effect and customers to
have responded positively. Against a strong comparable base, we assume a
broadly stable Gaming margin of 12.1% (eNuW).
Online Betting GGR is to grow 6.4% yoy to EUR 9.1m (eNuW). We expect the
Betting margin to improve by 0.5pp yoy to 13.5% (eNuW), supported by
internal optimization efforts. Following a weak Q1, volumes started to
stabilize with elevated marketing spending in Q2 but still fell 5.6% yoy.
Against this backdrop, volumes are seen to rise by 2.5% yoy to 67.4m (eNuW)
in Q3, despite seasonally weaker trading conditions due to management
initiatives resulting in an improved betting offering and usability. The
company received second-best scores for these categories in an annual
consumer test published by DtGV in October 26. Overall, it was ranked third
among the providers overall.
EBITDA before special items to improve. Given the stronger GGR and a
normalized cost base following the World Cup, EBITDA before special items is
projected to come in at EUR -0.5m (eNuW), compared to EUR -0.9m in Q3 25. The
EBITDA margin is to improve by 4.1pp to -4.7% (eNuW).
Improvements expected to gain traction. bet-at-home.com is pursuing various
initiatives to strengthen the user experience. Initial progress was already
evident in H1 26, when the NPS increased by 27 points to +17 compared to the
last survey at the end of FY25. The recent consumer test rankings of DtGV
further underline the positive perception of changes made. In our view, the
progress made should be reflected in Betting volumes gaining momentum over
H2 26e (eNuW: +5.4% yoy).
Estimates unchanged. We expect Gaming to maintain its strong growth
trajectory, with stronger-than-anticipated adoption of higher permitted bets
per spin representing a potential short-term catalyst. While Betting revenue
growth is expected to remain seasonally subdued in Q3, we anticipate
stronger growth in Q4. Accordingly, we maintain our FY26 GGR estimate of EUR
49m. By contrast, the FY26 EBITDA before special items guidance of EUR 0-4m
appears feasible, but demanding. We project the 9M figure at EUR -1.2m.
Achieving the guidance range is expected to depend on a strong Q4
contribution. We reiterate BUY at a PT of EUR 5.0, based on FCFYŽ26e.
You can download the research here:
https://nwr.eqs-cockpit.com/fncls2.ssx?fn=redirect&u=1f4a691dbbc03f64c52be2204d9a59cf
For additional information visit our website:
https://www.nuways-ag.com/research
Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss
bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenkonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben
analysierten Unternehmen befindet sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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2426108 02.11.2026 CET/CEST
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