Original-Research: Verbio SE (von NuWays AG): BUY
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Original-Research: Verbio SE - from NuWays AG
13.11.2026 / 09:00 CET/CEST
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Classification of NuWays AG to Verbio SE
Company Name: Verbio SE
ISIN: DE000A0JL9W6
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: BUY
Target price: EUR 41
Target price on sight of: 12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst: Jorge Gonzalez
Q1'26/27: Biodiesel beat, stronger outlook
VERBIO's Q1'26/27 EBITDA rose nearly fivefold yoy to EUR 76.1m, beating our
estimate by 24% and consensus by 14% (eNuW: EUR 61.5m, eCons: EUR 66.6m). EBITDA
rose 10% qoq excluding the EUR 19.1m Q4 GHG quota inventory valuation benefit.
FCF turned positive at EUR 13.5m (Q1'25/26: EUR -37.8m), helping reduce net debt
to EUR 83.1m from EUR 91.5m at FY-end.
Biodiesel drove the beat, with margins still strong at the start of Q2.
EBITDA more than doubled yoy to EUR 51.2m (+42% vs eNuW) and rose EUR 18.4m qoq
on broadly flat sales volumes. Market spreads recovered from their Q4 lows,
while favourable feedstock purchases lifted realised margins above the
benchmark.
Bioethanol/Biomethane EBITDA recovered to EUR 19.7m from EUR -9.5m a year
earlier, 24% below eNuW. The shortfall largely reflected temporarily lower
US production and lower sales of third-party products. EBITDA fell EUR 16.2m
qoq on a comparable basis as European ethanol spreads normalised. The US
production issues have been resolved, with utilisation back at 60-70% in
Nevada and c. 70% at South Bend. Other EBITDA reached EUR 5.2m (eNuW: EUR
-0.4m), helped by commodity forwards.
VERBIO now expects FY26/27 EBITDA at the upper end of its EUR 210-250m
guidance range (previous eNuW: EUR 230m, eCons: EUR 245m), supported by the Q1
beat and expectations of strong biodiesel spreads through calendar year-end
(eNuW: c. EUR 300/t). US ethanol spreads have narrowed from c. US$ 100/t to
US$ 40-60/t (eNuW), with higher corn oil and DDGS prices partly offsetting
the pressure on integrated margins. Stronger global ethanol demand could
support US spreads later in the year.
FY26/27 guidance excludes potential benefits from US 45Z tax credits.
Management now expects final rules in December. The programme runs through
2029, with potential retroactive claims dating back to 2025. At South Bend,
VERBIO plans to replace natural gas in its boilers with biogas from ethanol
stillage, lowering the carbon intensity of its ethanol and potentially
increasing the credit per gallon. At the CMD, management illustrated
theoretical gross annual credits of US$ 13-130m at 90% utilisation,
depending on carbon intensity and before potential value sharing. We model EUR
10m of incremental EBITDA from 45Z in each of FY27/28 and FY28/29.
European regulation could support demand for compliant biofuels. As
discussed in our latest note on E20, the German and French push for higher
ethanol blends could lift demand in an already import-dependent market and
support spreads. From January 2027, tighter German anti-fraud rules would
allow biofuels with fraudulent sustainability documentation to be excluded
from the GHG quota system, favouring compliant suppliers.
We raise our FY26/27 EBITDA estimate by 9% to EUR 250m (from EUR 230m), in line
with the upper end of guidance, reflecting the Q1 beat and continued
strength in biodiesel margins into Q2. We reiterate BUY and retain our EUR 41
price target, based on the average FY27/28-FY28/29 FCF yield. -Q1 review
table on next page-
You can download the research here:
https://nwr.eqs-cockpit.com/fncls2.ssx?fn=redirect&u=562d19187244ead5445b808b2f14e1f7
For additional information visit our website:
https://www.nuways-ag.com/research
Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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analysierten Unternehmen befindet sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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