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Original-Research: publity AG (von GBC AG): Hold

um 10:01 Uhr


Original-Research: publity AG - von GBC AG

Einstufung von GBC AG zu publity AG

Unternehmen: publity AG
ISIN: DE0006972508

Anlass der Studie: Research report (Anno)
Empfehlung: Hold
Kursziel: 20.00 EUR
Kursziel auf Sicht von: 31.12.2024
Letzte Ratingänderung:
Analyst: Matthias Greiffenberger, Marcel Schaffer

publity AG focuses on green growth: 50% ESG-compliant buildings by 2030.
The interest rate turnaround is a challenging situation for real estate
companies. Participation PREOS reports sharp decline in NAV.
In fiscal year 2022, publity AG recorded a significant decline in revenues
of 83.7% to EUR4.68 million (PY: EUR28.75 million). This was due to various
challenges, including the interest rate turnaround and the war in Ukraine.
The lower number of transactions resulted in less income from finder fees
and exit fees. In addition, the reversal of the GORE deal contributed to
fees from the Luxembourg deal from the first half of 2022 not being
settled. This resulted in lower revenue than originally expected.
EBITDA decreased to EUR-23.44 million, compared to EUR14.6 million in the
previous year. In addition to a significant decline in sales, other
operating expenses increased by 62.4% to EUR25.82 million, mainly due to
additional expenses of EUR14.4 million related to a failed deal with a
Luxembourg investor.
Originally, a net profit of EUR6 to EUR10 million was planned, yet the year
ended with a high net loss of EUR192.54 million. This is mainly due to value
adjustments on financial assets, in particular PREOS Global Office Real
Estate & Technology AG, amounting to EUR171.38 million, which was
characterized by strong price losses, resulting in a corresponding value
adjustment. However, in the event of a possible increase in the share price
of PREOS, there is the potential for appreciation.
publity AG plans to position itself as a green asset manager by 2030 and to
manage at least 50% ESG-compliant buildings. The company also plans to
reduce its CO2 footprint by 50% and become completely climate-neutral by
2030. A new 'Green Advisory' business unit is planned to provide expertise
on ESG-compliant building refurbishment.
For 2023, we expect an increase in sales, despite adverse effects from the
interest rate turnaround. We forecast sales of EUR11.5 million, followed by
EUR15.0 million in 2024 and EUR20.1 million in 2025, respectively. The guidance
calls for a break-even result after taxes, with a slightly positive EBIT.
To counteract the current challenges, the company is implementing strict
cost management. We expect EBIT of EUR0.3 million in 2023, followed by EUR3.32
million in 2024 and EUR6.64 million in 2025, respectively. We forecast net
income at EUR0.28 million in 2023, EUR2.39 million in 2024 and EUR4.71 million in
2025, respectively.
As part of our DCF valuation model, we have determined a target price of
EUR20.00 (previously: EUR46.50). We have allocated the investments in
affiliated companies and the loans to affiliated companies to net financial
assets. This primarily includes the PREOS investment. The share price of
PREOS as of December 30, 2022 was EUR 3.40 (Xetra), corresponding to a market
capitalization of EUR 385.79 million. Given publity AG's 94.3% stake, this
represents a value of EUR348.82 million on its balance sheet. Our revaluation
is based on the latest ad-hoc news from PREOS, according to which
devaluations have led to a reduction in equity to EUR204 million as of
December 31, 2022 (December 31, 2021: EUR418.0 million). In accordance with a
participation rate of 94.3%, a value of EUR192.37 million is attributable to
publity AG, which is thus significantly lower than the value recognized in
the balance sheet as of December 31, 2022. To determine the fair value of
publity AG, we refer to net financial assets of EUR224.05 million (December
31, 2024), which corresponds to a fair value of EUR15.06 per share based on
the number of shares in publity. Adding the value of the operating business
on the basis of the DCF model, we have calculated an overall price target
of EUR20.00 per share and, against the backdrop of the current share price,
assign a Hold rating (previously: BUY).

Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden:

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Date and time of completion of the study: 01.08.2023 (13:30) German: 29.07.2023 (15:00)
Date and time of the first disclosure of the study: 02.08.2023 (10:00) German: 31.07.2023 (11:00)

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Für den Inhalt der Mitteilung bzw. Research ist alleine der Herausgeber bzw.
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publity AG

WKN 697250 ISIN DE0006972508